Thread by @PoliticsCourage

Fellow Berners,

I think we're doing well in this battle thus far. The ruling class and its #bourgeois mouthpieces are clearly scared. Of 23 candidates, our champion is in 2nd place to a two-term vice pres. even though the corporate media hyped several other candidates, [1]

one by one, each of whom supposedly was about to replace #BernieSanders but flopped or are stalled.

If there must be a candidate ahead of Bernie now, I'm glad Biden is the one. Of course, we should not take for granted his self-destruction or our ability to defeat him. [2]

However, we ought to be encouraged by the latest data from @ChangePolls in the first three states that will vote. In each of them, Bernie and Biden are the only ones who draw at least 15%, which is the threshold to obtain at-large pledged delegates. In IA, the said candid- [3]

ates are tied at 24%. In NH, Bernie leads, 30%-26%. And in NV, Biden leads, 29%-24%.

Although the race can change tremendously over the next eight & a half months (and certainly will change significantly), there is an excellent chance for Bernie to sweep the said trio of [4]

states. In that case, only an unprecedented upset could thwart him on the road to the nomination.

As you know, there is a serious and well-funded effort to achieve such an upset -- specifically, to trigger a second ballot at the convention for the first time since 1952, [5]

which was 20 years before all (or even a large share of) dels. were chosen via primaries and public caucuses. Superdels. came into existence for the conv. of 1984. The conv. of 2020 will be the first in which they'll not be allowed to vote on the first ballot. Ergo, the [6]

anti-Bernie plan would be to ensure Sen. Sanders -- if he is to place first in pleged dels. -- will not obtain more than half of them.

In my estimation, FWIW, such a scheme would be very difficult to pull off. The last time no candidate eventually secured a majority of PDs [7]

was '84, in which the SDs delivered the nomination to the candidate who had the plurality of PDs. Next year, much will depend upon how many candidates, and which ones, will remain for given lengths of time. The anti-Bernie bigwigs certainly do not yet have their act to- [8]

gether. Maybe they never will. We're lucky they're incompetent. Biden's message is incredibly out of touch w/ the Democratic electorate, the gen. electorate, and reality at the Capitol. Perhaps his candidacy will somehow nonetheless remain viable for the next 14 months. [9]

If not, who could stop Bernie? Any candidate who does not have a lock on his/her home-state is not exactly formidable. Harris is 3rd in CA. Swalwell is not competitive there. Warren is 3rd in MA. Moulton is not competitive there. Buttigieg is 3rd in IN. Messam is not [10]

competitive in FL. O'Rourke is in a dead heat in TX. Castro is not competitive there. De Blasio would be crushed in NYC, no less statewide.

Bennet, Bullock, Gabbard, Hickenlooper, Inslee and Klobuchar are from states Bernie carried but where no polls have been conducted [11]

for this cycle. The rest of the candidates are Booker, Delaney, Gillibrand, Ryan, Williamson, Yang, and maybe Kerry.

I'm optimistic.

Bernie's biggest opponent is the corporate media. But they have already thrown the kitchen sink at him and are down to complaints about [12]

his manners.

No other candidate matches Bernie's nat'l organization, base of small donors or, "in my view," political skill.

Let's continue to work hard. But let's not worry. [13/13]