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ᴅᴀᴠɪᴅ ᴘᴇʀᴇʟʟ ✌
@david_perell
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
🚨 Correlation/Causation chart crime
Here's what's happening: The graph doesn't include the weather, which explains the surprising correlation.

People consume more ice cream when it's sunny, and they also commit more violent crimes on warm evenings.
This chart still holds the award for the worst chart crime. 🏆

(h/t @dollarsanddata)
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More from @david_perell see all

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ᴅᴀᴠɪᴅ ᴘᴇʀᴇʟʟ ✌
@david_perell
We've entered a new era in marketing.

The big digital advertising platforms are fairly priced now. Offline channels like television, billboards, and retail stores are growing fast again.

Innovation will shift towards top-of-funnel advertising.
Some data to back this up...

1. Advertising on Facebook has become 70% more expensive between 2017 and 2018, while ad spend on Facebook grew 40% during Q2 2018.

perell.com/blog/customer-…
2. Growth in Out-of-Home advertising
Read 9 tweets
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ᴅᴀᴠɪᴅ ᴘᴇʀᴇʟʟ ✌
@david_perell
To future entrepreneurs: start writing online.

No matter what kind of company you want to start, it pays to have a smart and targeted audience. Writing will help you build credibility, meet investors, and find future co-founders.

Invest in your future.
People under-estimate how much work is done before you start a company.

That’s when you build your network. That’s when you learn what you need to know. That’s when you discover what you’re good at.

The seeds are planted years before the flowers bloom.
Here's a starter kit.

I wrote this guide for people who want to write online but don't know where to begin.

perell.com/blog/the-ultim…
Read 3 tweets
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ᴅᴀᴠɪᴅ ᴘᴇʀᴇʟʟ ✌
@david_perell
Announcing Summer of Learning 2019.

I’ll be teaching two courses with @fortelabs this summer. Students will learn how to turn ideas into results by publishing online.

This is the training I wish I’d had when I started writing.

praxis.fortelabs.co/summer-of-lear…
@fortelabs Background on the two courses:

1. Building a Second Brain will teach you to take notes and save your ideas, so you can achieve more with less effort.

2. Write of Passage will teach you to write online. You’ll build a personal website and develop a repeatable system for writing.
@fortelabs Building a Second Brain (created by @fortelabs) was game-changing for me.

I used to hate writing. Now writing is fun for me. I used to have terrible writer’s block. Now I have *too much* to write about.

Taking Building a Second Brain is the best career decision I’ve made.
Read 3 tweets

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Strong coffee ☕
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Now that my social security didability application has been approved, I feel a sense of relief and hope that I will get some of the services that I need. (1)
But I grieve as well, for all the time lost since early spring of March 2013. I accept this grief as natural. I accept that I will cry and feel sadness. To tell me to cheer up while I am going through post-traumatic stress and grief is to misunderstand both. (2)
I know the grief will pass. I know how to take care of myself when I am experiencing post-traumatic stress. Everyday, I focus on all the wonderful and amzing things life as to offer - art, nature, gardening, children, bad internet memes. (3)
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Ellie Murray
@EpiEllie
Are you still shaking off the holiday? I know I am!

How about a #cartooncausalinference #tweetorial about casual graphs to ease us into the new year?

#epitwitter #DAGsfordocs #FOAMed #MedEd #statstwitter #econtwitter
The most common type of causal graph (at least on #epitwitter) is the directed acyclic graph, or #DAG.

DAGs have two main components: variables (also called nodes), and arrows (also called edges).

In the DAG below, there are 3 variables: sleeping, Santa, and presents.
The variables are ordered based on time — you have to go to sleep before Santa can come to your house & then he’ll leave presents!

Causation and time both flow in the direction of the arrows.
Read 24 tweets
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Peach's momma 🍑
@kissoohae
🔹

He wakes up once again to an empty room. He looks for his phone which he finds at the dresser with his car key. His shoes neatly arranged next to the closet and curtains drawn.

He checks the bathroom but there is no sign of the younger.

Failing to have his call picked up,
he sends a text and starts to feel anxious.

Did Kyungsoo run away?

He opens the closet and finds their bags with their wallets inside. It means the other only has his phone with him.

And he's not answering any calls and texts.

He's seriously getting worried.
If before, he could contact his cousin and ask of his whereabouts, right now he doesn't have anyone to turn to.

Just then the door opens, revealing a drenched Kyungsoo. The younger just stands there, at the doorway with a bashful smile.

"What happened to you? Why are you wet?"
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min yoongay
@hobixmyg
Yoonseok au || Hoseok is a dance major and Yoongi a music major. They have some classes in common and Hoseok keeps looking at the beautiful guy in front of him. However Yoongi think it's a bit creepy.
Yoongi is friends with Namjoon (music major) and his boyfriend Jin (started working in a small company).

Hoseok is friends with Taehyung, Jungkook and Jimin. (Taehyung is majoring is music too and jm and jk are dance majors)
Hoseok sign up to a new class.
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Lyman Stone
@lymanstoneky
Okay folks, today is monday. So sit down, buckle up, and brace for some tales of woe, death, and despire.

ITS #NBERDAY!
Q: What happens if we teach a bunch of formerly-very-violent Liberian farmers ways to nonviolently manage disputes?

A: They become less violent! Because local elites monopolize the peaceful system! nber.org/papers/w24482 #NBERday
Basically, an NGO funded a grant to teach a random sample of Liberian villages some peaceful dispute resolution mechanisms, in the hope that this would create norms of nonviolent dispute resolution.

Turns out, it actually worked! #NBERday
Read 52 tweets
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Sean I'M LIKE REALLY SMART
@seanthegritty
Hmmm, yet you are exhibiting a logical fallacy-correlation vs. Causation. Your logic, in July more ice cream is sold than in any other month, also in July, more people suffer from heat strokes than in any other month. Your conclusion, ice cream causes heat strokes...😂😂😂😂
No moron it's hot in July! This is why you never answered my request. I said show me where CEO'S resigned IN RESPONSE to the WH policy. I do not care about your conspiracy theories confusing causation with correlation. #theresistance #RESIST #resistance #magat #maga #CULT45
unroll
Read 3 tweets

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