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Judea Pearl
@yudapearl
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
1/3 The #Bookofwhy is not about "what causal calculus cannot do" (eg, play chess, translate languages etc) but about the many miracles it CAN do. Among them resolving the simple version of Lord Paradox, with two dining halls, each serving one diet, and a very large sample. So,
2/ believe it or not, but this simple version is still paradoxical to most mortals, and has been paradoxical for half a century. It is now resolved by causal calculus. Your multi-hall version may be of interest in a certain context, but I cant understand why you are insisting
3/3 that this idiosyncratic version is essential for resolving the simple version, and that he who does not attend to your version is guilty of neglecting the foundations of statistics or worse. I do not buy it. Lets focus on the simple version -- are you happy with the solution?
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Judea Pearl
@yudapearl
1/2 We should all live to see Mehdi Hasan's face the first time he is called "Zionophobe" in front of an audience. On the one hand he is proud of being anti-Zionist, so he cannot deny the charges. On the other hand he will resist the analogy with Islamophobia which would force
2/2 to philosophize on what "identity" is, be it religious, national or historical which, again, will steer the conversation to where we can win hands down: the moral imperatives of Zionism and the racist deformities of Zionophobia - the ugliest word in town.
1/2 Mehdi Hasan's embarrassment will not end here. Once the conversation shifts to discuss the right of Jews to a homeland, he will be facing a dilemma: (1) To be honest and declare (like barghouti) that Jews are not a people or (2) To say that Jews, if well behaved, are entitled
Read 4 tweets
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Judea Pearl
@yudapearl
1/3 This paper identifies causal effects by proxies, a task shown feasible here ucla.in/2N5GNOK and here ucla.in/2N9icIX. Blocking back doors is a sufficient condition for identification, not necessary; it turns out that, under certain circumstances, a proxy
2/3 can replace a blocker Z. Going from ATE to ITE ("individual" treatment effect) is not really hard (theoretically) if by "individual" we mean "c-specific effects" where c is a set of characteristics marking the individual, namely X=x.
The nice thing about the paper you cited,
3/3 is that everything is spelled out in a language CI folks can understand, so that mysteries can be de-mystified. The authors should be commended. Effect-restoration was a breathtaking mystery to me in 2010, and it shows in the writing; I called it "far from obvious" #Bookofwhy
Read 3 tweets
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Judea Pearl
@yudapearl
1/3 I am curious, do you know of any paper that states explicitly the asymptotic equivalence of PS and the "adjustment formula"?? I have only seen it in Causality,
ch 11, not elsewhere, Why? Perhaps someone is interested in marketing it as a magic wand? I am also curious to know
2/3 how many readers hear this equivalence for the first time. It says that regardless of what covariates you use, as the number of samples increases, the bias of the PS estimator converges to the bias of the adjustment estimator. If many hear about it for the first time, it will
3/3 serve as an example of information stifling that CI needs to liberate itself from. Anyone knows what the new CI textbooks say about PS? I would use it as a litmus test for authors understanding of modern CI. #causalinference #Bookofwhy @causalinf
Read 3 tweets

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Mandi
@MPX_Trader
My job as a coach is to challenge my traders, hold them to their standards, point out unconscious behaviors that keep stuffing up their trades.
Those traders who get annoyed / withdraw -> keep battling discipline.
Those who step up, lean in ->improve in leaps & bounce 👊
#simple
When they withdraw, what they do is, abandon before they can be abandoned.
This behavioral pattern is based on feelings of inadequacy, caused by an early experience of abandonment.
Once the abandonment issue is resolved, trading will rocket to levels they never thought possible🚀
In 99% of consistently losing traders, it's just 1 behavioral pattern that causes the unresourceful, self-sabotaging behavioral pattern.
You can keep all your other 'stuff', no need to be perfect. Just resolve the one, so that you are free to move forward and live your dream!💰
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🇬🇧 IM 🇬🇧
@TellYourSonThis
Chess is a metaphor for life

-Getting into your enemy's head
-Planning ahead
-Acting decisively
-Placing traps
-Leveraging the disposable

The ignorant think chess is a game for nerds

Its players understand the brilliance of what it cultivates cerebrally

My son will play chess
If you think about the premise of chess quite literally, you are simply assuming the role of a military officer overseeing the field of battle.

This is what chess emulates, and this is why it builds leadership skills at the cerebral (but not interpersonal) level.
Chess won't make you good with people.

It won't teach you how to manage their emotions or be intuitive.

It won't guarantee you're an effective leader.

Most chess geniuses are dysfunctional people.

But it *WILL* give you a set of cognitive skills essential to leadership.
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Sursdik
@SURSDIK
Many crumbs will make a cake.
1. Why does Potus surround himself w/ generals?
2.Who has access to everything classified?
3. This is not a R v D battle.
4. POTUS has everything.
5. Priority to clean out the bad actors to unite people behind the America First agenda.
6. Many in our govt worship Satan.
7. Follow the money, it’s the key
8. Why did Soros transfer his bulk public funds to a NP?
9. Why is MS13 a priority _ nobody got this.
10. many are thinking from one point of view, US only, this evil is embedded globally. US is the first domino
11. Obama ultimately OK’d by using the non govt email addy to communicate w/ Clinton.
12. Why are Senate Republicans dropping out? Not by choice and were offered a choice
13. D’s can’t lose control over the black population.
Read 49 tweets
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Dimiter Toshkov
@DToshkov
I recently finished 'The Book of Why' by @yudapearl
I would highly recommend it to everyone interested in causality and scientific explanations. /THREAD
amzn.to/2OW9v0Q
#bookofwhy
The book is rather accessible, so you don't need to be a #causalinference nerd to follow the arguments. At the same time, there is a lot to learn even if you have struggled your way through Causality (CUP, 2009) and the technical papers
amzn.to/2OSmzEb
I have been an early converter and have used the 'structural' approach to causality to organize my own book on research design in political science.
Now I am glad I have an accessible book to point students to for more info and background.
amzn.to/2KfX3Iy
Read 10 tweets
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Ellie Murray
@EpiEllie
Wow, #epibookclub, we’re officially halfway through the #bookofwhy!

Chapter 6 is a doozy... we’re going to learn all about paradoxes!! Get ready to have your mind blown!! 🤯🤯🤯
Given last week’s tragic fail on paradox gifs, I made you our very own #epibookclub gif! It’s paradox time!!

(Please be kind this is my very first homemade gif 😂😂)
I like the chapter set up this week: @yudapearl explains importance of spending time working out the paradoxes...they can give us insight into how people process causal information. He says these are paradoxes b/c they straddle the rungs of the #ladderofcausation

So, up we go!
Read 25 tweets
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Vikas, Artash, & Arushi/ @RealScientists
@realscientists
Many families (mine included) face tough decisions on what #languages to speak at home. There's a lot of #myths about early #bilingualism , like:
-Kids will get confused
-They'll have lang delays
-They won't learn the majority/dominant language

More info: hanen.org/Helpful-Info/A…
In my family, my dad spoke #arabic and my mom spoke #english. My dad was concerned about me learning English so after about 5 y/o, we hardly spoke Arabic. Since I didn't have any Arabic-speaking peers or teachers, my Arabic suffered attrition and now I understand, but not speak
My case isn't uncommon either-many early #bilinguals and #heritagespeakers often don't have the linguistic support systems (at home or in school) to maintain their languages, due to factors such as lang myths, discrimination, lang policy in schools, etc
Read 3 tweets

Trending hashtags

#cartooncausalinference #SCOTUS #epibookclub #LanguageOfEspionage #Messiah #DAGsfordocs #causalinference #Chess #heritagespeakers #SAT #statstwitter #MedEd #Israel #econtwitter #BibleStudy #arabic #epi #Jerusalen #languages #fakenews #OswaldTheLuckyRabbit #epitwitter #jobs #bookofwhy #SHSAT
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