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1. That the Chinese in #Gikomba elicited such a furore shows how Naive & Gullible we continue operating in this 4th industrial revolution (4IR) environment. Unless we wisen-up we won't have much hope to thrive in days ahead with our youths facing massive unemployment to boot 
2. Small Traders have been up in arms in recent days decrying their worsening fortunes & I for one think the era of retail shops is gone- Things will get worse before they get better& the Chinese #Gikomba Traders are but a very small cog of the overall issues
3. Realtors have been reporting a drop in letting, on hitherto non-available space, across all the major downtown streets. High frequency data would suggest that the overall market has been growing, but its clearly moving away from the streets. But why would this be so?
4. The Biggest culprit is not the #Gikomba Chinese Traders but online e-platforms that allow offshore Traders to access the local markets straight from their home countries. A cursory look at the major platforms shows that the majority of merchants are shipping from abroad.
5. This in essence means that anyone importing goods will be disadvantaged due to higher operating costs + will most likely face a diminished client base as foot traffic downtown gets replaced by online shopping. Electronic shops have been the hardest hit by these developments
6. This is not restricted to #Gikomba only- we have seen influx across all segments including capital intensive items like motor vehicles where offshore dealers relocated from Japan & elsewhere to set up local operations to the detriment of local Traders.
7. The biggest job & revenue losses are however 4IR related. The gig economy has forever changed the fortunes of local firms + the hustler economy in ways that I am afraid we cant come back from unless we institute far-reaching policy changes. The cheese moved & we are grappling
8. Every sector we can think of is slowly been disintermediated (replaced) by behemoth Digital businesses. The most common in Kenya are Rideshare+ Logistics,E-commerce, Hotel &Stay, Financial services. The opportunity costs to the hustlers+ taxman have been immense. Lets explore
9. It used to be you could buy a taxi and expect payback period of 24 months. What's become clear is that very few Taxi or rental firms will survive the onslaught of international "taxi apps'. While I dont begrudge them, business practices that are frowned on abroad are rampant
10. Taking a ride from Westlands to JKIA for 600 bob, then a 25% fee is paid makes you wonder how drivers cope. To break-even divers will ride in excess of 16 hours a day to cater for loans, yet auctioneer advertisement shows a huge of these vehicles getting auctioned.
11. The challenge is beyond the tech, not much investment actually flows into the country. The cars are locally owned & serviced at owners. The best executive jobs and tech jobs remain offshore. How much value do we derive as a country as the top doesn't remain here?
12. Online retailing is another line causing havoc. The bulk of goods get charged 25% (excluding FMCG goods) after sale. Majority of sellers are abroad and not liable to local taxes. One firm was quoted saying they offshore software engineers in Europe as we 'lack' talent .
13.What we are left with are lowly Warehousing & bookkeeping jobs. Every other services is outsourced at usurious terms where the firm will still make a 100% margin from delivery etc. Biggest cost is marketing & the bulk goes to international SM firms like FB, Google, Twitter etc
14. After spending exorbitantly on offshore services and labour, the firms will then post a huge loss locally- presumably will eventually be claimed as a tax credit, hence diminishing future tax obligations. E-commerce is killing retailers & we have had no response to even things
15. Another notorious line are the 'stay' apps. These will charge you 30% for letting, yet the majority of guests are right here. The only investment they make is online marketing via FB etc & have escaped paying taxes so far. These guys are giving our hotels sleepless nights
16. Hotels (alongside Agric +Manufacturing) are the largest employers historically. Continued proliferation of gig-apps will see a contraction in these sector.
17. What all this points out to is that the economic stay of our consumption-based economy depends on ability to broker stuff manufactured abroad. #Gikomba is the cream of the broker economy & its likely its best days are over. Thousands will lose livelihoods - permanently!
18. One of the better innovation I love is Twiga foods. However, their business model cuts out all the brokers in the supply chain. The food market has been another mainstay for youths across Nairobi- what happens when the steps from the farmer to the consumer is cut to one app?
19. Twiga can track the food to the farm that produced it & assures of the production phase. Then they can deliver at a lower cost due to just-in-time production with minimal waste. In these days of lax standards, that's a sure winner. Our markets won't survive that onslaught.
20. If the masses get replaced from the broker chain, where can they turn to? Production could be the solution. But we cant produce without any knowhow, no capital while competing with Chinese producers. We are facing an employment crisis of unimaginable proportions.
21.Growing of crops looks like the only sector underpinning our consumption-based GDP growth. If we don't own and drive our economy, ultimately there will be less money going round, inequality & unemployment will rise. A whole lot of policies need to change to support the youth!
22. For #Gikomba if we cant control the Chinese & we can't ban imports, let's consider allowing EPZ to sell larger quantities to the local markets. At least that way we can boost local production & create jobs to replace what's lost. Can we also revive the cotton sctor already?
