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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
, 4 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
So the Brexiteer dream FTA with the EU:

1/ Will not maintain frictionless trade
2/ Does not therefore solve the Ireland border issue
3/ Is not therefore currently on offer to the whole UK
4/ Would take years to negotiate (5-10?)
5/ Will require UK to follow EU rules
6/ Has forecast economic loss greater than all new trade deals
7/ May not mean totally tariff-free trade
8/ Will be much more restrictive on services than now
9/ May not protect UK business interests (in that these are not yet defined)
10/ Could clash with US FTA provisions
11/ Will not be easier to negotiate than the Withdrawal Agreement
12/ Could mean continued payments for some access
13/ May mean the UK signing up to a Multilateral Investment Court
14/ Would still require other agreements on e.g. aviation, data
15/ Will constrain UK policy space
A Free Trade Agreement is a tool available to a Government once it has decided what kind of relationship it wants with another country. It is not the answer to that relationship. Oh, and the bigger partner gets more of what they want than the smaller partner.
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Weekend musing - @RoryStewartUK is reminding us of a different kind of englishness to that we usually talk about in Brexit - shyly engaging, enthusiastic, crumpled, quizzical rather than angry, slightly mad, inclined to moderation. Win or lose this may have future influence
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Stewart in the final two (unlikely, but possible as the only candidate with real energy) against Johnson would also in some ways resemble Johnson 2008 v Johnson 2019 (politically, for Stewart does not seem to share Johnson's amorality)
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
This excellent brief is a useful hook to consider some crucial and mostly so far unasked questions about the next PM, like their governing style, choice of Cabinet, potential big policy shifts (not just Brexit), and legislative program.... 1/
Governing style - Theresa May favoured as we know a closed and secretive approach. David Cameron was much more open. The latter seems to work better, under this PM too much was kept by too few, and as a consequence Government never felt really joined up... 2/
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Blaming trade for the world's ills, this is typical of the new left-wing case for national protectionism on the almost entirely unconvincing grounds that it was trade deals that led to the populist backlash. There's a case for a new model of trade liberalisation, this isn't it 1/
All the fault of the creation of the WTO apparently? There's implications here that we shouldn't trade in services, that agriculture trade is now fully liberalised, that there shouldn't be international rules to trade. Sorry, but don't find this credible 2/
We should never have let China into the world trade system? What about the increased global prosperity as a result of that happening, which cannot be denied? Distribution is an issue, and I don't at all dispute the last sentence, but is that just down to trade?
Read 10 tweets

Related threads

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Katy Hayward
@hayward_katy
I've not done any #Brexit #border slides for a while.
Here's an effort to outline in as simple a way as possible what each of the main scenarios would mean for movement of goods across the UK's land & sea borders.
1/5
 [DM me with an email address if you need a grayscale version]
In a Transition Period, following the #WithdrawalAgreement, the movement of goods between the UK and EU remains free flowing.
During this time, the negotiations on the future UK-EU trade agreement will be underway.
2/5
If at the end of the Transition Period, there is no UK-EU FTA close enough to avoid a hard Irish border, the backstop will kick-in on a temporary basis.
It has both NI-specific and UK-wide dimensions to minimise controls needed across UK land & sea borders.
3/5
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The Columnist
@Sime0nStylites
1. The implementation of Brexit has been an unmitigated disaster, characterised by grievous policy errors and inept politics. This is a thread from a UK perspective about what happened and a little of the why.
2. In the beginning, the 2016 Referendum provided Brexit’s only two inescapable facts.

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Eleanor Sharpston
@akulith
1. Following two successive votes rejecting the draft withdrawal agreement (DWA) (432-202 against and 391-242 against) and this evening’s vote (321-278) to reject any no deal Brexit, here is a personal reflection/contribution on possible extensions of time under Article 50 TEU.
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BorderWarnings
@BorderWarnings
1~
18.04.2016
Theresa Villiers contradicts statements by Ahern, Hayes and Lawson.
irishnews.com/news/2016/04/1…
2~
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politico.eu/article/juncke…
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Vicky Ford MP
@vickyford
I have just been sent 30 Truths about Leaving on WTO Terms... think of them what you will ...
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2: It avoids the uncertainty which the transition period would bring
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Read 34 tweets
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David M. Herszenhorn
@herszenhorn
Amid reports that #UK PM @theresa_may hopes to renegotiate the "backstop" provision on the Northern Ireland border, let's recall that she already made clear what she wants in her letter to #EU leaders before disastrously losing the #Brexit Withdrawal Treaty ratification vote. 1/
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