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Katy Hayward
@hayward_katy
, 5 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
I've not done any #Brexit #border slides for a while.
Here's an effort to outline in as simple a way as possible what each of the main scenarios would mean for movement of goods across the UK's land & sea borders.
1/5
 [DM me with an email address if you need a grayscale version]
In a Transition Period, following the #WithdrawalAgreement, the movement of goods between the UK and EU remains free flowing.
During this time, the negotiations on the future UK-EU trade agreement will be underway.
2/5
If at the end of the Transition Period, there is no UK-EU FTA close enough to avoid a hard Irish border, the backstop will kick-in on a temporary basis.
It has both NI-specific and UK-wide dimensions to minimise controls needed across UK land & sea borders.
3/5
If we have a more NI-specific backstop & with the UK outside EU customs territory, it would mean more friction on UK borders with EU & between NI & GB.
This would be more like the original version of the draft Withdrawal Agreement published in March 2018 & rejected by May.
4/5
Unsurprisingly, the friction caused on UK's borders by exiting without a Withdrawal Agmt is by far the worst scenario for movement of goods.
This overview incorporates UK & EU published plans for No Deal.
5/5
 *Draft, deliberately simplified; suggestions for correction welcome.
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More from @hayward_katy see all

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Katy Hayward
@hayward_katy
THE KEY QUESTION at the nub of the fuss re: #Brexit, the #backstop & @BorderIrish is this:
What the heck has the European Union got to do with #peace here❓

Well, the ANSWER is, when all's said & done, pretty simple.

It’s about the British-Irish relationship.

THREAD 👇 
1/
This was acknowledged by the EU itself 35yrs ago in the Haagerup Report on resolving the conflict.

I'll explain this now by summarising my paper from Cooperation&Conflict @SAGECQPolitics.

[& you can see the Report here. Hurrah for @CAINWebService] 👉
2/
111 people were killed in 1981.
In May 1981, @EuroParl_EN passed a Resolution recognising the EU had ‘no competence to make proposals for changes in the Constitution of N.Ireland’.

110 were killed in 1982.
The Troubles were raging. And there was little prospect of resolution.
3/
Read 18 tweets
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Katy Hayward
@hayward_katy
Karen Wheeler (formerly of UK govt #Border Delivery group) made some interesting points at @ifgevents #IfGBrexit today.*
Here's a v.brief summary.
1/5
*[so did @AllieRenison and @Lorand_Bartels too, you won't be surprised to hear]
She said UK govt has been trying to guide UK businesses in prep for #NoDeal but particularly difficult for NI.
'Cos v. unclear how IRL wd deal with border.

Without knowing arrangements on the other side, it is extremely difficult for cross-border traders to prepare/comply.

2/5
This leaves NI businesses at a heavy disadvantage in a No Deal, being only prepared for the UK side of trade.

Worsened, she noted, by high number of small businesses in cross-border trade.

Unilateral policy of the UK for land border in a No Deal thus 'somewhat difficult'.

3/5
Read 5 tweets
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Katy Hayward
@hayward_katy
Interesting things afoot in political attitudes in N.Ireland.

The majority of people say they are #Neither Unionist nor Nationalist.
This has risen from 1/3 to ½ since 1998.

Here's a thread summarising my paper at the ‘constitutional futures’ conference @ucddublin today.
1/5
'Neithers' are likely to have a mix of both British & Irish identities.

This compares to ½ Unionists having exclusively British identities & 72% of Nationalists exclusively Irish identities.

So some 'Neithers' are only British, some only Irish & some ‘other’, i.e. mixed!
2/5
This slide shows we can’t read directly across from a #Neither identification to a particular view on NI’s constitutional status.

The majority say they'd vote to remain in the UK but also - notably - ¼ would not vote at all in a border poll.
#context
3/5
Read 5 tweets

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tony nog #FBPE
@tony_nog
1) Why does no-one talk about the EU trade defecit or German car makers any more?

The £350m & the lies on immigration were important but an absolute consistent #Brexit tag line was "they need us more than we need them"

*that* was the Brexit on offer, a desperate, pliant EU
2) the sequence of events is very simple yet never picked up by our media who cannot look back more than 48 hours:

- Brexiters told us the German car makers because of our huge trade defecit would be desperate for a trade deal
- "its in their interest, they have more to lose"
3) - Gove, Johnson, Davis, Grayling, Farage, all of them said we were guaranteed a better #Brexit deal than we have now

Some of them might even have believed it.

- we wouldn't need to be *in* the Single Market because we would have full *access* to it, at no cost to the UK
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John Walton 🏳️‍🌈 ✈️ 💺
@thatjohn
Some deeply sobering thoughts about #Brexit tonight, from the perspective of a former Whitehall civil servant with an MA in International Relations.

Bottom line: get out of the UK. Get out now, while you can, however you can. Go wherever you can. I'm deadly serious. 1/
Westminster is obsessed with the "backstop", which is essentially how to administer a border within the island of Ireland. This is a distraction: throw enough arbitrage of VAT at the powers that be in Northern Ireland, à la Canarias or Ålands, and they'll fall in line. 2/
The Irish border question can technically be resolved. It has been resolved numerous times in the past, but the problem is that it has largely been a militarised border, like Iraq-Kuwait after the 1990s conflict, which is politically unacceptable. 3/
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Catherine Walsh
@gurriersread
There's far too much #bull being rattled around this ref. proposal. Wake up #Ireland folks; yes, we need to amend wording to reflect reality, ensure equality of responsibility is norm; no, it would be terminally stupid to throw it all out altogether,reduce legal standing of all/1
2/ from potentially exploitative employers' points of view. Amendment should not mean rescinding basic tenets on protecting #economic position of wo/men w children & of childrens' rights to home & care there, it should mean updating in line with values & mores of us now & ongoing
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Simon Cox
@SimonFRCox
UK is heading for #Brexit In Name Only. And maybe the slow, spasmodic death of British nationalism. Thread.
I’ve never believed UK & EU would agree terms on a new - indefinite - relationship. There’s a chasm between EU’s position & UK rhetoric 2/
Conservative Party backed EU for 50 years. Most grandees, funders and MPs still believe UK would do very badly if it left SM. Financial Times & Treasury agree 3/
Read 31 tweets
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Stuart Foster #FBPE
@Stuart7610
1. The car industry, eg Vauxhall and Jaguar-Land Rover, is now beginning to warn openly of serious problems ahead unless we come to a satisfactory trading arrangement with the Eu.
2. I have no doubt that some leaver in the Tory party, or even in the Labour party, will pop um soon to tell us that, if we have a free trade agreement that gets rid of tariffs, then the car industry will be fine.
3. If someone does, do not be fooled. The industry needs frictionless movement of goods between the UK and the EU. That requires the removal not only of tariff barriers, but also of non-tariff barriers. An FTA will only remove the former.
Read 5 tweets
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Pete North
@PeteNorth303
1. The #Brexit question has always been one of what sort of relationship we want with the EU if not actual membership. Brexiters bleat "we just want trade" failing to note that regulatory harmonisation is central to free movement of goods.
2. The minimum condition of entry into the EU marketplace is compliance. Any third country can do that but without the ability to self-certify goods for circulation in the market they are subject to full third country controls at the borders.
3. Members of the single market avoid those customs controls by way of having the ability to self certify goods. This is why the single market is more pertinent to free movement of goods than the customs union.
Read 22 tweets

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