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modest proposal
@modestproposal1
, 4 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Thanks to Druck I guess we've got the mismeasurement hypothesis back in the news. i remain as skeptical today as I was when it was being routinely debated a few years ago. This post is a compendium of productivity papers, some pro and some against MMH. ftalphaville.ft.com/2016/03/11/215…
"In combination, these complementary facets of evidence suggest that the reasonable prima facie case for the mismeasurement hypothesis faces real hurdles when confronted with the data."

nber.org/papers/w21974
"After 2004, measured growth in labor productivity and total-factor productivity (TFP) slowed. We find little evidence that the slowdown arises from growing mismeasurement of the gains from innovation in IT-related goods and services"

brookings.edu/bpea-articles/…
"important new evidence has been published on the mismeasurement hypothesis... there is no unanimous verdict, tho the bulk of the evidence suggests it can explain only a fairly small part of the productivity puzzle. The bulk of the slowdown seems genuine"
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modest proposal
@modestproposal1
the good news is German banks are historically wonderful stewards of capital
This really is official German policy cc: @wolfejosh
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modest proposal
@modestproposal1
The most formidable moat Amazon has built is logistics. Many other parts of the experience can be unbundled and improved upon (e.g. it’s rarely the cheapest and the site experience/discovery sucks). But establishing parity or at least “good enough” in delivery is daunting.
What’s interesting is Amazon mostly built their fulfillment network on the back of 1P selling. Yes, 3P is now bigger, but Amazon was willing to spend enormous amounts early on funded by 1P, and then later on 3P to better leverage those assets and further fund network expansion.
Anyone trying to build fulfillment on the back of 1P doesn’t have the capital and/or tolerance for investment required. We know 3P is far more profitable. Which is why what Wayfair and SHOP are doing is so interesting. Backing into fulfillment from 3P.
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modest proposal
@modestproposal1
Not surprisingly, this was so so good. Master class on network effects and marketplaces with tons of specific examples and insights.
"do unscalable things to build a network"

"liquidity quality matters more than liquidity breadth"

"marketplaces built around monogamy e.g. doctors, haircutters, babysitters much harder to scale than marketplaces built around promiscuity e.g. restaurants"
"Have come to be skeptical of supplier acquisition as differentiator in marketplaces. Demand is the game"

"Fragmented supply, high frequency, SMB suppliers, young businesses are characteristics of wildly successful investments"
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Kevin Roose
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I’ve been working on a story for a few months that I’m excited to share.

It’s about a 21-year-old guy who was radicalized into the far-right, with help from his YouTube recommendations. nytimes.com/interactive/20…
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Alan Cross
@AlanLCross
Ugh. Councilman: “I’m a Christian and my Christian beliefs are you don’t do interracial marriage. That’s the way I was brought up ... When you see blacks & whites together, it makes my blood boil bc that’s just not the way a Christian is supposed to live.” ajc.com/news/local-gov…
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Sam Butler
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Children in Victorian poverty in our schools: @Channel4News this evening.

My dad died when I was small. Subsequently, I had two episodes of homelessness as a child (early 1960s). I stole food to feed my Mum and me.

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Witty Wicked Wizard🦁
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I remember one Friday afternoon like this few years ago at post office round about in Ilorin, an Okada man hit a VENZA and despite several begging and pleading, Venza man insisted the okada guy must fix his bumper, one man driving Mazda premacy came to beg the Venza guy too,
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Paul Schmehl
@PaulSchmehl
The vet group I’m involved in got into a discussion of suicide risk today. It seems that every time the VA released suicide numbers, a burst of article come out about vets committing suicide. Especially among Vietnam vets, this is a sensitive topic.
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