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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
, 3 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
"5G networks in the US are showing millimeter wave signals aren't traveling > 350 feet, even when there are no major obstructions. They're also not penetrating walls or windows, making indoor coverage difficult." wired.com/story/choosing… "millimeter wave will not be easy or cheap"
"If the US government is serious about 5G they ought to be focusing on getting CBRS and the C-Band spectrum into the market as quickly as possible. The 'Real 5G' is going to flourish in what we now call mid-band spectrum, between 2.5GHz and 4.2GHz." lightreading.com/mobile/5g/abse…
The cost of building out in millimeter wave spectrum + poor propagation in millimeter wave = Phoenix sold at only 0.0218 per MHz/POP.

The lower the spectrum the better the unit economics of a MHz. Deployment gets hard above 2.5 and really hard above 6Ghz.lightreading.com/mobile/5g/amer…
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
"Availability bias" about this type of innovation doesn't happen because it's everywhere:

"...the first subsea cable using optical switching at the fiber pair level making it easier to allocate capacity. It is able to carry about 20 times the capacity of the last cable."
Innovation today is overwhelmingly created by teams of people often distributed globally and it is happening constantly and relentlessly. Anyone making or selling anything knows this from their daily work. Are there big breakthroughs still? Sure. For example, CRISPR.
"There are all kinds of wonderful new inventions that give you nothing as owners except an opportunity to spend a lot more money in a business that’s still going to be lousy." Charlie Munger

This is a constant reality for any business. Most innovation benefits go to customers.
Read 3 tweets
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
"NBC is removing ‘The Office’ from Netflix at the end of 2020 and putting it on its new streaming service [since the telemetry about customer consumption of its content is so valuable]." The first rule: own the data about customers. The second rule: don't forget the first rule.
A businesses can't properly manage the value of a subscriber without telemetry. Otherwise the provider is flying blind vs competitors. Managing a subscriber relationship is an art informed by data science. One or more of the horses can kill you. abovethecrowd.com/2012/09/04/the…
Managing a subscription relationships isn't like greenlighting a movie that may win an award. The relationship with the subscriber is ongoing and churn (which often has nonlinear impact) is a constant threat. The business with better data science *and* great artists has an edge.
Read 3 tweets
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
In Harry Stebbings' podcast Gurley talks about the role of luck in career outcomes. On the same day in the early 1990s an investor friend named Michael Larson introduced me to Gurley and Mauboussin and encouraged me to focus my curiosity on the work of Benoit Mandelbrot. Luck!
Gurley perfectly describes what happened from 1987 to the end of the Internet and telecom bubbles. Risk assumed was ratcheted up slowly like a frog in a proverbial pot of hot water over a period of years. But when risk aversion unpredictability appeared, it was shockingly sudden!
If you lived though the bubbles and believe you can time when risk avoidance appears you weren't paying attention. Stock market timers have in many cases been predicting the cycle would change for years (the tweets are still there to see). They'll be right someday once in a row.
Read 3 tweets

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Mert Kalyoncu 🇹🇷
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Güncel finansallar üzerinden bir fd/favök (ev/ebitda) değerlemesi anlatalım.
Piyasa #PNSUT hissesini nasıl fiyatlamış ?
88mn FAVÖK var, firma değeri bunun 7,33 katında, FD=648mn
Bundan PD ulaşmak için firmanın borcu çıkarılıp nakiti eklenir (net borç çıkarılır)
Kurumsal finansmanda bulunan bu değere özkaynak değeri de denilmektedir.
Bunu şirketin hisse sayısını ifade eden ödenmiş sermayeye bölerek hisse değerine ulaşıyoruz.
Biraz işin felsefesine inmek istiyorum monolog şeklinde.
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Firmanın ürettiği FAVÖK, doğru orantılı olarak,
Firmanın değerlendiği çarpan, doğru orantılı olarak,
Firmanın taşıdığı net borç (Finansal borç-Nakitler) ters orantılı olarak,
etkilemektedir.
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