Thread by @ClaireBerlinski

We're in an absurd situation. Tehran urges "global resistance against US bullying." irannewsdaily.com/2019/06/tehran…

That's this Iran: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_rig… one of the most brutal and repressive regimes in the world,

a regime that works aggressively to train, arm, supply, guide, and direct thousands of its thugs throughout the Middle East, from Lebanon to Afghanistan and to Yemen, and beyond the Middle East, too--bringing mass killing wherever they go;

a regime that has exported violent destabilization to Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen; one that has sponsored terrorist attacks on almost every continent; fomented divisions and fuelled sectarian schisms;

a regime consecrated in animosity toward the US and its allies, not just ideologically but concretely, through some of the deadliest terrorist attacks in recent memory, most carried out by Hezbollah;

a regime consecrated in animosity toward Sunnis and Jews, against whom they have carried out a widespread campaign of terror and murder;
reuters.com/article/us-mid…

a regime seeking to create a new Persian and Shi’ite empire on Arab land and become a brutal hegemonic power throughout the Middle East--in short, a first-order bully and threat to global security.

And it should be trivially easy for the United States to lead a global coalition to resist Iran's bullying. But it isn't. Because under Trump, we've bullied every significant ally, humiliated their leaders, worked against their interests, insulted their publics,

undermined their security, and become a force for destabilization, a friend of authoritarianism, and a menace to the global economy.

So when Iran says something as patently, egregiously ludicrous as this--it seeks "global resistance against US bullying,"

it doesn't make the man-on-the-street overseas laugh. *Everyone* feels bullied by America right now. That sense of humiliation at American hands makes it difficult for democratically-elected leaders to back us in containing Iran's bullying,

even if it would be in their own national interest. No one wants to look like Trump's puppet, especially because no one has any confidence that Trump has a plan, or even that he's in charge.

No one believes Trump would take our allies' security concerns seriously in devising any global response. No one wants to send their troops to die for "America First."

So we're finding it impossible to rally support for what would be, in a normal world, the most obvious of causes: protecting freedom of navigation in a strategically critical chokepoint. That waterway's security is essential to every nation in the world.

But even though it is in *everyone's* interest to unite and demonstrate resolve to protect freedom of navigation, we've made it almost impossible by electing a president so obnoxious and so untrustworthy that elected leaders can't take the risk of backing us.

We have someone in the Oval Office who, for the first time in US history, has run against the principle of free trade. He doesn't understand why free trade--and the freedom of navigation that sustains it--is the oxygen of modern life.

Trump's incessant lying has destroyed his credibility. Significant pluralities, if not majorities, domestically and abroad, find Iran's voice more credible than his.

In this case, it isn't more credible. Odds are extremely high that Iran attacked those ships.

They're also extremely high that the regime *knows perfectly well* that no one trusts the USG right now, and knows Trump will be unable to persuade other countries, and much of his own country, to support significant action to protect shipping in the Strait.

Like Russia, Iran sees much to be gained by separating the US from its allies, particularly its Western allies. No doubt they see it as a significant achievement to have exposed the strain in our alliances and the emptiness of our bluster.

So Iran will get away with attacking innocent ships; the so-called 'global, rules-based order" will be further undermined; and seeing our weakness, every other predator will be inspired to act.

We won't like the world we're creating.