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Given that the recess dates have now been approved, the statutory timetable for an early General Election (on Thursday 24 October) would on my count require a Vote of No Confidence to be debated no later than Tuesday 3rd September (first day back from summer recess).
Why a Thursday? Well it could be another day, but the UK hasn’t held a General Election otherwise than on a Thursday since 1931.
Why 24 October? It’s the last Thursday before exit day, so the last likely polling day that could lead to a pre 31 October change of Government.
Why 24 October? It’s the last Thursday before exit day, so the last likely polling day that could lead to a pre 31 October change of Government.
Count back 25 working days to get a date of dissolution. That takes you (on my count) to the beginning of Thursday 19 September.
The Crown’s proclamation for setting polling day therefore can’t be later than Wednesday 18 September.
The Crown’s proclamation for setting polling day therefore can’t be later than Wednesday 18 September.
The proclamation cannot be made until after the statutory 14 day window has expired. So it can’t expire later than Tuesday 17 September.
14 day period begins with day after day on which a VONC is passed. So the vote must take place no later than rise of Commons on 3 September.
14 day period begins with day after day on which a VONC is passed. So the vote must take place no later than rise of Commons on 3 September.
Tuesday 3 September is the first sitting day after summer recess, so any VONC would have to be tabled by the rise of the House on last day before recess (Thursday 25 July).
This is, if you believe some press reports, the day after it is expected Theresa May may step down as PM.
This is, if you believe some press reports, the day after it is expected Theresa May may step down as PM.
Now what does this not take into account?
(a) the possibility that MPs may wish a period of “wash-up” to get some outstanding legislation through. That would add an additional week of pressure to the above timetable.
(a) the possibility that MPs may wish a period of “wash-up” to get some outstanding legislation through. That would add an additional week of pressure to the above timetable.
(b) possibility of recall of Commons in August. However the Government has the initiative for recall: it is they who ask the Speaker under the terms of Commons Standing Order No. 13
(c) possibility of Governemnt seeking a GE quicker (a 2/3 majority as with the 2017 one).
(c) possibility of Governemnt seeking a GE quicker (a 2/3 majority as with the 2017 one).
(d) possibility that the Prime Minister could recommend that the Crown sets a polling day further in the future than Thursday 24 October.
(e) possibility that a Government can gain/regain the confidence of the House on or before Tuesday 17 September.
(e) possibility that a Government can gain/regain the confidence of the House on or before Tuesday 17 September.
What to take from this? Well if Parliament wishes to exert influence over Government policy on Brexit between now and 31 October, there is a limited window within which some of their “levers” can have an impact. The “lever” of a VONC is less strong after summer recess. [ends]
