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The first thing the new Tory leader needs is the DUP, and the only way they'll get it is by chucking May's deal.
Even with the DUP they might not win a vote of confidence, but for sure they can't win without it.
Even with the DUP they might not win a vote of confidence, but for sure they can't win without it.
And so, Theresa May's withdrawal agreement is extinct. Even if they went into an election, they could never win with that in a manifesto.
Ah. Manifesto.
If there is a general election, you can guarantee that at least one party will put another referendum in their manifesto. And if they hold the balance, as is most likely, we get our referendum.
If there is a general election, you can guarantee that at least one party will put another referendum in their manifesto. And if they hold the balance, as is most likely, we get our referendum.
So what we need to do is get into a general election, and then fight as hard as we can for the Lib Dems, and let Brexit split their vote three ways, Labour, Tory and Brexter.
So, no one wins a majority and we get a referendum.
So, no one wins a majority and we get a referendum.
If the new Tory leader loses a vote of confidence, we get an election that way.
If they survive a vote of confidence, it means they got DUP support, which in turn means no withdrawal agreement.
New government escapes into summer recess.
If they survive a vote of confidence, it means they got DUP support, which in turn means no withdrawal agreement.
New government escapes into summer recess.
This is what I think will happen. Abandon may's deal, get DUP support, win a vote of confidence, escape into summer recess.
Now they get two months to figure out how to get a Queen's speech through parliament in September.
Now they get two months to figure out how to get a Queen's speech through parliament in September.
If the Tories can't get a Queen's speech through in September, then it's a general election, and the Lib Dems will put a referendum in their manifesto, and the Brexyer vote splits, and Lib Dems hold the balance etc.
Either the Tories put a referendum in the Queen's speech, or a referendum will be added to it by amendment, or the whole thing will be voted down.
And if it's voted down, it's a general election and the Lib Dems put a referendum in . . . etc.
And if it's voted down, it's a general election and the Lib Dems put a referendum in . . . etc.
So the Tories offer a referendum, or we get a general election and all vote for whichever party does offer a referendum.
Brexit is already over. There's no way it's going to get through parliament now, not under any government, with or without a general election.
Brexit is already over. There's no way it's going to get through parliament now, not under any government, with or without a general election.
I told you all along, as soon as Theresa May resigns you'll see Brexit die within days, right before your very eyes.
