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Andrew Lilico
@andrew_lilico
, 6 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
The notion a new Tory leader might be elected, but if that person cldn't command a majority in the Commons May might stay a while is...interesting...
Confidence for a new PM seems unlikely. It's tricky to believe any new Tory PM cld get a Queen's speech through, for example. If it included No Deal measures, anti-No Dealers wld vote it down. If it didn't include No Deal measures, pro-No Dealers wld vote it down.
The fact the opinion polls & Labour's recent performances in Wales & Scotland suggest Corbyn has no chance of forming a majority only makes confidence for a new Tory PM even less likely. Opponents of whomever it is can afford to risk a General Election.
At an early General Election, what wld the Tories do - purge either Remainers or No Dealers? If they didn't purge one or the other, what conceivable manifesto could the Tory Party offer?
I'm not meaning this as just a rhetorical point. Straightfwdly: without a purge of one side or the other, what manifesto or platform cld the Tories offer at a General Election? How cld they prevent a repeat of their joke of a Euro election campaign?
And if the Tories did try purging either their No Dealers or their Remainers+Anti-No-Dealers, wldn't there inevitably end up being 2 "Tory" candidates running in loads of constituencies as the purged MPs tried standing anyway?
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More from @andrew_lilico see all

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Andrew Lilico
@andrew_lilico
Climate change mitigation's largely a busted flush. We simply aren't, as a species, going to stop the climate from changing no matter how many speeches David Attenborough or others give. We're going to hv to adapt. There shld be more debate & discussion of what's needed for that.
The responsible course of action for policymakers is to assume that the climate will change & to plan for what's needed to cope with (or in some cases - eg northern Canada - take advantage of) that. I'd like to see a national "Climate Change Adaptation Policy".
Now this already exists to some extent, but I hv in mind a major joint effort combining govt, business, households, schools, researchers etc. It'd be great if we cld, as a society, say "This is gonna happen, & here's what we're going to do to deal with or make the best of it."
Read 5 tweets
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Andrew Lilico
@andrew_lilico
What Varoufakis doesn't seem to grasp is that voters won't believe any General Election promises of the Tories after they so blatantly lied in 2017 & their leader lied so repeatedly & relentlessly thereafter. Tory election promises are utterly worthless. telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/…
"So what way out is there for a Tory PM, then?" None. There's no way out for the Tories. They're finished. All we want from them now is a rapid recognition of that so their party can be folded up quickly & painlessly & get out of the way.
If there were a General Election, & a voter wanted No Deal, why wld she vote Tory - proven relentless liars on the EU, for decades, & with no chance whatever in the polls of winning - when she cld vote @brexitparty_uk & be absolutely certain her vote wld be respected if they won?
Read 3 tweets
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Andrew Lilico
@andrew_lilico
Continuity Remainers have got away for far too long, unchallenged, in declaring that the Vote Leave £350m per week to Brussels claim was a "lie". It was not. telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/…
If you have a salary of £25,000 is it a "lie" to say that you get paid £500 per week? But don't get £500 paid into your account by your employer each week, do you, or even 4.3 times that per month? So it's a "lie" to claim your pay is £500 per week, right?
"Ah, but what counts is the actual overall net amount we end up paying in respect of each week. That wasn't £350m." No. *That* (that actual overall net amount) was more like £325m-£340m, though by now it would be much much more than that.
Read 6 tweets

Related threads

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Jon Worth
@jonworth
I *know* what’s sensible isn’t what happens in Brexit... but what sensible options are available now?
May’s Deal unamended is not available. It has no majority. ⛔️
No Deal, as default, happens if nothing is agreed. But it is not sensible, for it causes enormous economic and political damage. ⛔️
Read 7 tweets
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Sergio Graziosi
@GraziosiSergio
What the hell is @jeremycorbyn doing?
Why is he enabling #Tory #Brexit?
Is this the final betrayal?
No, it isn't.
It's the predicted effect of decisions taken 2-3 years ago. All things considered, it's not as bad as it could have been (thanks to #StopBrexit crowd).

Thread.
1/n
To understand why, I need to outline 2 important mechanisms that most people, politicians and commentators seem to ignore, dismiss or simply don't get. They have different and somewhat opposite consequences, but are both decisive in the current & foreseeable predicaments.
2/n
1st and foremost: the biggest constraint that applies to political decision-making comes from the past decisions & policies.
It is a massive constraint.
Cameron COULD NOT convincingly campaign for #Remain, because his own policies CREATED the discontent channelled by #Leave.
3/n
Read 23 tweets
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Professor Dingo
@ProfDingo
A modest proposal from me for a conceivable (at least) way through the Parliamentary impasse 1/
Assumption #1: that no serious statesman could even contemplate No Deal, and that there is nothing remotely close to a Parliamentary majority for it. 2/
Assumption #2: there is no way forward (except No Deal) that will not require an extension of Article 50, so just ask for it now. 3/
Read 17 tweets
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🎄🔶🌸❄️Sakura To Yuki No Seirei❄️🌸🦋⚢⚧
@SakuraNoSeirei
So, I've waded through the Evangelical Alliance's new pastoral "guidelines" for interacting with trans people (ughh, the things I do to expose #transphobic #ciswits to the world), and let's just say it's time to tear this particular sh*t-bag a new hole.

1/n
CW: #Transphobia, #ConversionTherapy, #Zucker, #Religiously #driven #zealotry

2/n
So, straight off the bat, first page of text, the use of #language is . . . well, yeah, see for yourself:

"It is important to remember that transgender is not simply an issue to be debated;" - p5, #Transformed

*sigh*

When such language gets reinforced by insisting...

3/n
Read 176 tweets
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Robert Peston
@Peston
Your argument @johnmcdonnellMP that the Tories should stand aside because they cannot command a majority would be a more powerful one if you had actually defeated the government. But extraordinarily Labour failed to get all opposition MPs to vote on its important amendment to...
...force the government to publish how proposed tax cuts would improve or worsen child poverty. Not a great advert for Labour's ability to command a majority in the Commons even as the DUP's deal to support the government breaks down. If Labour were to excuse itself by saying...
...it didn't notice DUP estrangement from @theresa_may over her Brexit plans, well that would be pretty hilarious
Read 9 tweets
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James Barisic 🇪🇺 #FBPE
@jamesmb
So, what will @theresa_may do at 5?

* Resign as PM?

Seems unlikely. She's just sat through hours of questioning in the Commons. Why put yourself through it just to throw the towel in?

* Resign as leader?

Takes control of leadership election timing but very high risk strategy.
Danger is that some people do stand against her and she is damaged beyond repair in the first round.

* Offer a #PeoplesVote?

She heard the Commons. She knows that her deal won't get through. Is this her solution? Would be incredible politics and would stop leadership talk.
Reason? There are not enough ERG fanatics to get to 58 for the trigger.

* Just Battle On

Most likely option is that she just explains that there is nothing else on the table and so you'd better stop moaning and get on with it.
Read 4 tweets

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