Thread by @balajis

The extent to which YIMBY folks have shifted the discourse over the last few years is impressive. Feels like they have the moral high ground and momentum now nationally. Credit to @SonjaTrauss for her persistence.

Of course, some would argue that the moral debate is just a proxy for the economic tug-of-war between renters and owners. Perhaps a statistical analysis would show that there are now more information workers on the renter side than the owner side. That would explain the shift.

Still feels like it will be too little, too late for San Francisco. Huge lag time between when the law changes and when buildings are move-in ready. The US as a whole is far behind China here, and falling further behind. Compare this from 2012 to SF 2019:

Here's another from 2015:

And a six story dormitory built in five days:

Or the construction of a train station in 9 hours, literally overnight:

Similar projects in the US take years and cost billions of dollars. We aren't even talking about 2-3X better, China is >100X better in terms of speed. They can build a train station in one day while it takes years in the Bay Area.
projects.sfchronicle.com/2019/bay-area-…

And it's not like SF gets higher quality for the time/money. The Millennium Tower is tilting, the Transit Center beams are cracking, and much of the city is built on land that may liquify in the next quake.
businessinsider.com/is-millennium-…
mercurynews.com/2018/12/13/how…
nytimes.com/interactive/20…

Things can change, of course. Just 42 years ago, capitalism was illegal in China and entrepreneurship was punishable by death. So, it's hard to predict many decades out. But at least in the medium term, the US isn't vectoring in the right direction.
npr.org/sections/money…