Thread by @Peters_Glen

One-sixth of global economy under net zero targets

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Hold your horses 🏇, let's think this through...

Yes, it is great countries are setting net-zero targets. Can we instead have a list "countries that have policies in place to reach net-zero"?

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eciu.net/news-and-event…

Presumably Bhutan & Suriname have achieved their target due to forest sinks.

Let's think this one through...

If we emitted no CO₂, the net sink would be zero. The sink arises because we emit CO₂, 40GtCO₂ per year in fact. The sink is mainly due to CO₂ fertilization...

2/

I am all for protecting forests, definitely. But should we give countries credit for a climate change induced natural sink?

If it good enough for Bhutan & Suriname, then it is good enough for Sweden? Sweden would almost be net-zero today if the sink (green) was included...

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Australia gets away with increasing its GHG emissions because of some nice accounting of the LULUCF sector (otherwise known as the 'Australia Clause' at the Kyoto Protocol). Is this the sort of behaviour we want in net-zero?

Figure by @robbie_andrew

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As an aside, reporting & accounting in the land sector is complex, & the separation between human & natural effects has been a decades long problem. Don't be naive to these issues when we start talking net-zero...

Blog: carbonbrief.org/guest-post-cre…
Paper: rdcu.be/bHT2p

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Now, for Norway. I am not sure it is correct to say "in law". I have some colleagues that will write a post on that.

But, either way, should we give Norway's net-zero credit when it is sort of meaningless in terms of emissions... Emissions are still rising...

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The UK net-zero target is much more solid. It is backed up by some analysis, it is realistic & achievable, & it can be improved upon if things move faster than expected. This we can applaud (though, I know many don't like the UK net-zero target).

https://twitter.com/Peters_Glen/status/1124212813713629184

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To be clear, I am a fan of net-zero targets, much better than carbon budgets rdcu.be/bHT2C. I think @Oliver_Geden was spot on when he wrote about this in 2016 rdcu.be/bHT2K.

But, we can't applaud countries for good net-zero rhetoric...

I stop here.

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