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Glen Peters
@Peters_Glen
, 6 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
The biggest sectors in terms of fossil CO₂ emissions are electricity generation & road transport (about half global emissions).

But, the dominant sectors change across coal, oil, & gas...

1/
Coal is dominated by electricity & industry.

The rapid growth of renewables may displace some coal in electricity, but there is a lot of coal power to displace & lots of difficult to mitigate coal in industry...

Coal is not going overnight, unfortunately!

2/
About half the emissions from oil use are in road transport: cars & trucks.

Aviation (domestic & international) are ~8% of emissions from oil (~3% global), according to @IEA data, much smaller than many assume.

Emissions from oil are growing strongly, in all sectors...

3/
Emissions from gas are dominated in electricity & commercial / residential, with industry important in some countries.

Emissions from gas are growing strongly in all sectors...

4/
These are all global figures, & the sector distribution changes by country.

The most simplified change: the rich will have more transport emissions, the poor more emissions from electricity.

NB: cement was only in the first tweet, total emissions.

5/5
NB: I deleted these tweets directly after the initial post (for those that saw it), and then reposted as I made a labelling mistake!
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Glen Peters
@Peters_Glen
Aviation sure gets people fired up!

Aviation is 3% of global emissions (yes, higher for some countries & individuals), but I get fired up about 100% of global emissions, 97% of which are not aviation.

Here comes a mini-thread on some numbers.

1/
First, aviation has some accounting problems. International aviation is not allocated to countries (~2%, brown in previous tweet), but domestic aviation is (~1%, orange). It is hard to find data & methods on how much international aviation should be allocated to countries.

2/
Second, aviation has extreme inequality. Just one international flight, or several domestic flights, could completely dominate the annual carbon footprint of an individual. From my previous thread, only 3% of people flew in 2017 (globally)

3/
Read 9 tweets
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Glen Peters
@Peters_Glen
Paper 1: "[E]xisting infrastructure will emit ~658GtCO₂ ... more than the entire remaining carbon budget [for] 1.5°C"

Paper 2: "[I]f carbon-intensive infrastructure is phased out at the end of its design lifetime ... there is a 64% chance [warming] remains below 1.5°C"

1/
Paper 1: nature.com/articles/s4158…
Paper 2: nature.com/articles/s4146…

Why do these papers get different answers, basically, carbon budgets & non-CO₂?

@chrisroadmap explains here

2/
Short answer: But, it is all within uncertainties...

I think the way carbon budgets are often expressed, "66% chance below X°C" hides the uncertainty, much better to show the range of outcomes (as is done for the ECS, etc)

rdcu.be/bHT2C

3/
Read 5 tweets
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Glen Peters
@Peters_Glen
Some interesting facts on flying:
* 80% of the world's population have never flown
* In 2017, only 3% of the population flew
* Norwegian's on average take 1 domestic & 1 international flight per year
* Norway has the 5th, 8th, 16th most traveled routes in Europe!

1/
There are serious inequities in who has access to, & uses, flying.

Perhaps these inequalities are why so much attention is put on aviation emissions. In big picture, aviation is small (this figure is only emissions from oil, domestic aviation & aviation bunkers shown).

2/
Even in Norway, aviation is relatively small (again, this is just emissions from the oil sector).

That is not to say we should ignore aviation emissions, definitely not, but we tend to get worked up about small things (aviation) & ignore big things (road transport).

3/
Read 7 tweets

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