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So will @vonderleyen win the confidence of the @Europarl_EN next week and become Europe's next @EU_Commission President? The vote is scheduled for Tues, though there's some speculation it could be delayed until Weds (or indeed later) if her majority looks uncertain. Short thread
The EPP, socialists & liberals control 444 seats. 376 is needed for majority. So the 3 groups could get vdL over the line. But group discipline is unlikely to hold. Elements of EPP are pissed off Spitz was killed - even though they then also opposed @ManfredWeber for EP President
Many socialists also annoyed @TimmermansEU package failed & they've been lumped with lesser influential High Rep post. The fact it's a secret ballot only adds more volatility into the mix. Right now, senior officials believe vdL is ~55 short of a majority. What, then, can she do?
1) Try to buy off the Greens. The Greens are seeking the EIB Presidency & a Commissioner post (@ph_lamberts - a Green Belgian MEP name has been touted). 2) Turn to the populist ECR group to secure the support of the Poles & the Brits. But this would not be a great look
3) vdL can also adopt the program that the 4 parties are developing & will discuss with her tomorrow - a "joint platform". And of course, there's the juicy distribution of the broader portfolios. The Irish want Trade (Brexit?). Italians Competition (good luck). Estonians Ecfin(!)
The Poles & Hungarians both want control of EU regional policy or the EU budget. The Greeks (former PM Samaras will probs be their Commissioner) can expect a big portfolio - and want energy. Austria wants enlargement. French keeping their cards close. This still very early days
On balance, most senior EU officials think it'll be hard for MEPs to reject first female Commission President, especially as her replacement - a non-Spitz EPP - will likely be less qualified for the role than vdL is. Look around, there aren't many credible names left in the frame
German SPD also won't want the Grand Coalition to unravel. & MEPs are being warned that standoff between Council & Parliament which could last entire summer is last thing EU needs. But there's a risk. "There's a lot of angry white men running around" smirks one senior EU official
Another notes: "We have to protect the EP from its own stupidity." Ultimately, then, I think vdL will get through. For the reasons in the thread above and the mood in Bxl & across the 3 institutions - as well as of course, for many, many reasons that I can't reveal on here ENDS
