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Most of no deal debate focuses on economics & "preparedness". What about political implications? UK-EU relations? Big gap in how both sides see it. Short thread. For some time, a cohort of senior EU officials have believed a crisis is needed to "unlock" this phase of Brexit 1/
The thinking goes something like this: No deal would force a "reset." With WTO terms of trade shock, UK would "crawl back" to negotiating table & swallow elements of WA that EU would demand as pre-requisite to talk trade. But this is a flawed, & grossly oversimplified view 2/
As one senior UK officials argues "the idea that the UK would crawl back is a massive misread of personal behaviour & the UK's view of itself." Those who supported no deal would likely double down. UK Govt would have to blame those it thinks led them to no deal - EU? Dublin? 3/
Far from producing a "reset", the rhetoric becomes more vicious and more nationalistic. One senior British official argues: "Of course the UK economy would be badly hurt... but if it carries on for long enough the dynamic changes as there's no further losses to inflict." 4/
Narratives form, & would dominate. British officials believe this would be the "worst negotiating outcome in the EU's history." But what would EU's narrative be? They would need one & it certainly wouldn't be this. What would the UK's be? Likely to result in a toxic blame game 5/
Would UK swallow all elements of WA? There's no theological opposition among MPs/in Parliament to paying financial settlement. Especially as no deal would mean no implementation period, so £39bn would drop. Ditto EU nationals rights. What about backstop? Trickier 6/
Both sides believe options would present themselves in a no deal situation that aren't/can't be put on table pre-emptively to strike a deal. But could they surface in toxic political environment officials believe would ensue in a no deal context? & would they be enough? Unclear 7
Even without no deal, UK officials fret that Anglo-Irish & Anglo-French relations are going to take a very long time to recover - regardless of what happens. Far from a "reset" then, no deal could prove to be a much longer lasting, damaging political & economic equilibrium ENDS
