Thread by @deeputalks

[1/14] THREAD - India's defeat in the semifinal was a logical culmination of a sequence of events that the team management/selectors overlooked in the lead up to the tournament buildup last year or two.

[2/14] - Over-dependence on top three

India's top three contributed 63% of all runs scored by India since the last World Cup - more than any other side. To a large extent, Rohit-Kohli-Dhawan hid the fragilities of a wafer-thin middle & lower order.

[3/14] - Non-existent middle & lower order

In 34 successful run chases by India since Apr 2015, one from the top three top-scored in 30 of those. In four others, the top order set a reasonably strong platform for the middle & lower order to get them home.

[4/14] Here is the equation for India in those four games at the point last of the top three batsmen were dismissed
vs Aus, SCG, 2016: 100 off 91 (RR 6.59)
vs Aus, Indore, 2017: 91 off 95 (RR 5.87)
vs Aus, MCG, 2019: 118 off 129 (RR 5.90)
vs Aus, Hybd, 2019: 142 off 175 (RR 4.87)

[5/14] - CT 17 final RED ALERT
How does India chase if there is a top-order collapse? The CT 17 final run-chase set a perfect template for oppositions to follow - nab Rohit & Kohli in the first few overs and put the rest under pressure, which they hardly have to face otherwise.

[6/14]
Incidentally, the last instance of both Rohit & Kohli getting dismissed for single-figure scores was in the CT 17 finals against Pakistan at the Oval.

[7/14] - Dhoni struggles in run-chases
Coming in pre-dominantly at #5 and #6, Dhoni had a strike rate of 72 in run-chases after last WC. In 300+ chases, he had a strike rate of 80 and in sub-300 chases, it read 69.

[8/14]
Dhoni struggles against spin (he has a strike rate < 70 against off-spin, leg-spin & left-arm spin), left-arm seam angle and pace are well-documented by now and oppositions are smart enough to exploit them. In addition, he is a slow starter and has strike rotation issues.

[9/14] -
While Dhoni was always smart in picking which bowler(s) to hit, Williamson made sure he had to go past all his key weapons to get access to his fodder - right-arm medium pacers. NZ had Santner, Boult & Fergusson to attack Dhoni on multiple fronts.

[10/14] -
Between Pant, Shankar, Hardik, Jadeja & Karthik, they batted 75 times in ODIs in the last four years. Hardly ideal coming into a big tournament like WC? In comparison, the English trio of Stokes, Buttler & Moeen batted 190 innings between them in the same period.

[11/14] -
With so much inexperience and uncertainties around him in that middle order, was the team management unreasonably expecting Dhoni to pull off one miracle too many?

[12/14] - Preparing for 'THAT' one crunch game
With two of the current best ODI batsmen and the best bowling attack at their disposal, India would have made it to semis even they played below their full potential in the league phase.

[13/14] -
Should India have prepared better and had a Plan B for the 10/3 kind of scenario if and when that happened rather than hoping their top three would get them over the line every single time? In hindsight, a resounding YES.

[14/14] - Wrote about the two issues which would come to bite India in a World Cup knockout 18 months ago. And there's nothing more to add to them!!!

Over-reliance on top three: tinyurl.com/ya52zet5

Dhoni's struggle in run chases off late: tinyurl.com/ybwxgxpv