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Balaji S. Srinivasan
@balajis
, 4 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
The closest thing I can think of to a truly new behavior with no immediate precedent that became popular is Amazon Echo.

People weren’t really walking around the house talking to themselves. I guess Siri existed but I don’t think (?) it was that popular.
But otherwise I agree with @BrianNorgard. What tends to happen instead is that niche behaviors get popularized by technology.

Going to library → Google
Looking at photo albums → FB
International calls → Skype
Call a taxi → Uber

Not new behaviors, but newly popular.
Evan Williams made a similar point several years ago.
fastcompany.com/3019327/ev-wil…
Now, where it gets interesting is that after a few iterations you do get qualitatively new behavior.

Postal mail →
Email →
Group email →
Facebook thread

Try replicating a Facebook thread with postal mail! You’d spend a fortune in stamps. Imagine mass mailing every comment.
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Balaji S. Srinivasan
@balajis
A sophon lock already kind of exists on every industry not related to computers. These sophons aren’t alien in origin but all too human.

See Eroom’s Law for how drug development has become exponentially more expensive over the last century: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eroom%27s…
The fundamental question of the next 20-30 years may be whether software eats the world before sophons lock the world.
I’m bullish mainly because of crypto.

Outside of that, we moved very quickly from banning straws & scooters to advocating the breakup or destruction* of the most valuable cos in the US.

These things are never surgical. Startups will also suffer.

* Eg: archive.is/ks1jf
Read 5 tweets
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Balaji S. Srinivasan
@balajis
As scale increases, alignment decreases. Eventually a sufficiently disaligned organization degenerates into infighting.

We can turn this into a mathematical model that will predict the optimal size of a network, and the point beyond which network defects dominate.
Metcalfe’s law is based on the idea that every node gains value from every other node. Hence N^2 utility.

Odlyzko argues that it’s more like N log(N), as most nodes don’t contribute value to other nodes.

But neither model predicts a network size beyond which utility declines.
However, if we think of network participants as playing a game, we can forecast an optimal network size.

Specifically we look for the point at which a coalition can achieve a better payoff from defecting than by collaborating with all other players. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cooperati…
Read 8 tweets
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Balaji S. Srinivasan
@balajis
Coil/Imgur, Stellar/Keybase, EOS VC/Mythical Games, and (sigh) Tron/BitTorrent are all examples of an emerging concept I call the “network capitalist”. These are cryptonetworks that use their balance sheets to buy stakes in tech cos, thereby getting them onto their platform.
These deals are a hybrid between VC and platform evangelism. The cryptonetwork has money but wants users, so they do a deal with a property which has users but wants money. In theory, both parties get ROI from appreciation of the underlying coin — if use picks up.
There are a lot of these deals in the pipeline. We’ll see if they work. It’s part of the general trend in which crypto is evolving in the opposite direction from social. Social gained users first, monetization second. Crypto is the reverse.
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