Thread by @AlexandraErin

So I badly overestimate the extent of my recovery, but here is my big insight for the day: however badly you think Republicans are flubbing, however much you think Jordan blew up the "dossier" timeline... they think it's going great. The base loves it. They see a big win.

And that is the problem with these kinds of grandstanding hearings for the camera. They let each participant put on a show.

Remember the Kavanaugh hearings? Where they benched their own prosecutor when she got close to the truth and spent the rest of the time screaming? When Brett himself blustered unsteadily about liking beer?

They thought that was a tour de force, complete shutdown of "narrative".

Seeing a lot of that today, are you?

https://twitter.com/AtomicOvermind/status/1154055842511110144

Catch me saying we should try to persuade the remaining Republican voters of anything.

But if they come out of this feeling 100% justified, and the Democrats on their side have mainly just amplified the murkiness and muddiness Republicans have propagated over the truth...

Sure, we'll just count on the news media to report the truth in a neutral way and not, say, cover what top Republicans are saying, or what likely Trump voters in Indiana thought of it.

https://twitter.com/TheCheekyGinger/status/1154056887329087488

Honestly I guess it's my fault that I didn't disclaim that of course the goal isn't to reach Trump's base and change their hearts and minds.

But if you don't think their take will not have weight...

They scored a decisive victory in their game.

The gains are unclear on ours.

We should be well past the point of "the truth will win out". The truth does nothing on its own.

The media abdicated any responsibility to sound the alarm on Trump 2015-2016 because people would put it together themselves. Similarly, Mueller thinks his report speaks for itself.

But you cannot passively stand for the truth. If you let the facts speak for themselves, they get drowned out by the louder and more compelling stories the liars push.

It's no coincidence Trump's popularity has peaked while calls to impeach him are also reaching ba crescendo.

And the connection there is that Speaker Pelosi's strategy of letting him "impeach himself" effectively gives him the stage and lets him tell his story: that Democrats want to impeach him, are desperate to, but can't because he's innocent.

And this sways how people in the Mild Moderate Middle see things, hence the general uptick in his approval. That's not just the base checking in.

The GOP unites behind their lie while the truth speaks for itself.

Now... does this mean they shouldn't have had him testify? I didn't say that, either. It means I am bearish on the gains from how this played out, and also generally skeptical of the efficacy of this kind of public hearing overall.

I said this is the problem with these hearings. That is my thesis: public hearings have a downside, and this is it.

Any analysis of the day, any prediction for tomorrow, that does not take into account how it played on the other side of the aisle, is going to be rose-tinted.

I saw someone say that if nothing else, they can't repeat the lie that the investigation started over the Steele dossier anymore.

But why couldn't they? It was a proven lie before, it's not any more of a proven lie now. What stops them from going back to it when it's useful?

Seriously. They did get Mueller to say on the record and under oath that Trump would have been indicted based on the evidence found, if not for the memo. That should have been their opening act and they should wield it like a morningstar.

https://twitter.com/HerHandsMyHands/status/1154063789886590976