Thread by @IanDunt

Jacob Rees-Mogg up for first statement as leader of the House parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/05…

The hellish parallel reality of Days of Future Past has now become real.

Valerie Vaz: Given special adviser (Cummings) is in contempt of parliament, ca he come to the floor of the House and will he get a parliamentary pass?

I may have missed it, but don't think JRM responded to the Cummings question.

Angela Eagle: "The leader of the House's job is to be the voice of parliament in the Cabinet rather than just the voice of Cabinet in this place. Will he give me a pledge that he will take his duties to this House seriously and warn the PM that [prorogation] will cause chaos."

Mogg: "I take that part of my role extremely seriously. I have a somewhat romantic view of the Commons. However this House passed into law the Withdrawal Act and the Article 50 Act. Mere motion cannot and must not overturn statute law."

So that's a no then. All his high talk of protecting parliament falls apart. He refuses to say that he would discourage a prime minister from cancelling parliament to force through no-deal.

Mogg on Cummings' contempt of parliament: "His conviction is spent."

Johnson up soon. This is the important moment, where we might get a sense of the details of his Brexit plan, if indeed there is one parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/05…

So far the same as yesterday, a quasi-sci-fi list of elements which will make a Utopian Britain.

Karl Popper turning in his grave.

The central proposition is a reflection of the Brexiter complaint that May saw Brexit as a problem to be solved, not as an opportunity to be grasped.

Here comes the Brexit bit. Backstop goes against national self-respect and self-government. Time limit not enough. Any deal must abolish backstop.

Johnson says they're willing to negotiate alternative. He doesn't mention that the alternative is already in the backstop. It only kicks in if the alternatives fail.

Willing to talk "whenever, wherever" with Commission. Lots of talk of spirit of friendship. He knows this won;t work. It is narrative to cast them as perpetrators of no-deal.

Here comes preparation for no-deal.

Gove but in charge of preparations. Cabinet sec to mobilise civil service. Chancellor says "all necessary funding to be made available".

Return to rhetoric of this not being about challenges, but opportunities. The central argument is emotional, not practical.

Happy, opportunity-filled traffic jams.

EU citizens bit. He says there will be "absolute certainty" of right to live and remain.

But no mention of the more generous offers made previously by Costa and Gove - free citizenship for pre-referendum migrants, presumption in favour of settled status without proof to those who came after.

Says UK won't appoint a new EU Commissioner

Now starts babbling at crazy speed on funding for health and police.

I dunno how this way of speaking will go down with others. To me, it is the kind of thing that sounds bemusing and maybe charming at an after-dinner speech, but out-of-control from the despatch box.

"No-one believes more strongly than me in the benefits of migration to our country." Immediately follows with promise for a points-based system, starting with a review by the Migration Advisory Committee.

Going hard on it the emotional message. "These are the sceptics and doubters" he says, pointing at Labour benches.

Same narrative as yesterday: Trust in him is belief in positivist and commitment to country. Criticism is pessimism and lack of faith in country.

"A new golden age for our United Kingdom." That's the chief line.

Corbyn up.

It's a clever opening line, but it falls into Johnson's trap. "No-one underestimates this country, but the country is deeply worried that the new prime minister over-estimates himself."

Jeers on the 'but'. That's the thing: You have deliver a fierce patriotic message *against* Johnson and really get into it. That won't come naturally to Corbyn.

Makes a dig at the Lib Dems on austerity. Wrong approach. Asks about detail of exact funding settlement for schools etc. Wrong approach.

Asks about Patel support for death penalty, wants guarantees on not bringing back capital punishment. Wrong approach. This only works with people who already hate Johnson.

Better: Reminds House Johnson was in Cabinet that accepted backstop and voted for it less than four months ago.

"There is something eerily familiar about a prime minister marching off to Europe with a demand to scrap the backstop."

"No-deal means no steel, no car industry, food prices dramatically rising and job losses." Better again.

"The wealthy elite that funds him and his party will not lose their jobs.... Labour will oppose any deal that fails to protect jobs, workers right or environmental protections."

"If he has the confidence to put that decision back to the people we would in those circumstances campaign to Remain."

You can see the neither-here-nor-there problem there: Tories outrages by mention of Remain, but Remainers will just see that crucial caveat: 'in those circumstances'.

"Could Britain Trump take this opportunity to rule out once and for all that our NHS is not going to be part of any trade deal with the USA?" That's good.

"Far from wanting to take back control, the new prime minister will effectively make us a vassal state of Trump's America." This is also good. Corbyn's response has improved to the point of being nearly above average.

The NHS and vassal state of US lines of attack are strong, I think.

Johnson instantly says he would not agree to "any circumstance" that put the NHS on the table in a trade deal. Sounds firm, but much to work with there. Labour needs to make Nice equivalent to NHS in this discussion.

That's not just a strategic point. If Nice is affected by a US trade deal, it would prove crushing to NHS by driving up pharmaceutical prices. This will be aim of US negotiators. Ruling it out is important.

Raab gurning on the front bench. Terrible spectacle. Looks like he's never had an decent-minded thought in his life.

Jonson extremely animated. Occasionally looks slightly out of control

As Johnson attacks McDonnell, the shadow chancellor slowly gets up, takes a glass of water, and points at Johnson as if he's mad. Quite effective in diminishing him.

"It is this party on the side of democracy in this country, it is this party which is on the side of the people who voted so overwhelmingly in 2016."

"The reality is we are the party of the people." Christ here we go again.

Such a short sentence. But says so much: The 48% who voted against Brexit are not 'the people'.

Ian Blackford for the SNP: Welcomes "the last prime minister of the United Kingdom". Horrific.

Johnson couldn't ask for a better opponent: Not only someone who can't speak patriotically about Britain, but someone who celebrates their desire to break it in two.

Jo Swinson leads on EU citizens. "For three years they have been made to feel unwelcome in our country. They deserve certainty now. The PM has made assurances." Will he back guarantee in law rights of citizens. "Or is he all talk and no trousers?"

He says he will insist on guaranteeing on rights enshrined in law, says settled status has worked for one million so far. That suggests - probably -that he is not considering changing the settled status proof process.

Will a moderate Tory MP stand up and be counted here by asking a critical question?

Nigel Dodds for DUP "looks forward to further conversations in coming weeks". Those conversations are going to cost us all a lot of money. Bribes to the DUP to prop up a failed government.

Owen Paterson, who looks like he is being haunted by a younger, more kind-hearted version of himself, congratulates Johnson for "getting off to a terrific start".

Yvette Cooper asks about the "alternative arrangements". She has asked what they were 17 times. Can he tell her?

Johnson says there are "abundant facilitation, trusted trader schemes". So that's a no then.

Incredible bullshit.

Hilary Benn. Yesterday the Irish ruled out any negotiations being sorted in next few months. If that's right, and House votes against leaving on no-deal. What is his policy then? The key question.

Johnson says the question is "redolent of the kind of defeatism and negativity we've had over the last three years". Because of course he does. Positivity - intangible, meaningless - is the answer to all difficult questions.

Oliver Letwin. "He and I do not exactly see eye to eye on the likely consequences of leaving without a deal. May I ask him to retain his optimism about the opportunities of leaving with a deal."

Subtle dig there. Letwin working within the narrative and message of Johnson, but pushing for him to make a serious go of the talks.

Liz Kendall: "If optimism was all it took to get things done thousands of people would be spending this blisteringly hot sunny day waltzing across his garden bridge and jetting off on holiday from Boris island. As it is people need real solutions to their problems."

Both Kendall and Cooper showing what we missed out on when Corbyn was elected.

Soubry: If PM fails to secure deal, will Pm promise to return matter to "this sovereign parliament"> Johnson: "This parliament has already voted several times to honour the mandate of the people".

Truly abysmal to see Johnson pretend that voting to trigger Article 50 - a vote which the govt tried to prevent btw - in any way meant MPs accepted no-deal.

It meant they accepted the *risk* of no-deal. It mostly certainly did not mean they were voting against having any further democratic role in deciding on it.

The whole Johnson approach seems predicated on the idea that an election is forced by parliament stopping no-deal/holding no-confidence vote.

That suggests they're confident they can do well in an election because 1) Cummings will turn it into a divisive populist shitfight, a la 2016 referendum, but with a scattered opposition and 2) Johnson's charisma.

This is a daunting prospect, not least because of Corbyn's uselessness. However, those two points have some weaknesses.

First, the Cummings tactic is easier in an insurgent campaign than it is as an incumbent government. Second, because it is not clear that Johnson's charisma is as potent in the country as they assume it is.

The people that like him really like him. But the people that don't, including Tory Scots and Tory Remainers, really do not.

If Remain gets its act together this summer, if they can get that alliance together between the Lib Dems, Greens & others, it is quite possible to make that plan turn to ash.

But they do need to get busy on that shit. August is the only chance they'll get.