Thread by @christopherhope

My first Twitter thread:

A lingering mystery remains about Boris' successful first week: why has Dominic Cummings, the PM's senior adviser, told aides to prepare for a Budget in the week starting Oct 7, just three weeks before the PM has committed to the UK leaving the EU? 1/7

On first pass it seems to make little sense. Before Parliament broke up for the summer, ministers fought and failed to stop MPs passing a motion which requires Parliament to sit in September and October. 2/7

The defeat meant that MPs can now in theory use the time in Parliament to amend Government legislation to stop the UK exiting without a deal on Oct 31.

In which case - why propose a 'no-deal' Budget three weeks before the UK leaves? 3/7

This would give a clear Parliamentary opportunity for Tory rebels to unite with Labour to try to stop Brexit.

Could it be that the team around Mr Johnson want to goad Labour and some Tory Remainers into voting down the Budget, in effect making it a no confidence vote? 4/7

If the Government loses a vote on the Budget, then a general election would have to be called (ensuring that Mr Johnson delivers on his promise of not wanting to call an election himself). 5/7

The ensuing election campaign would see the Tories fighting on a no deal platform against a Labour party with an unclear Brexit policy led by Jeremy Corbyn, a leader who Tories believe is unelectable.

Is Dominic Cummings' plan to collapse the Government before Brexit? 6/7

Stranger things have happened. But Mr Cummings' suggestion of an early October Budget could be the trap to force a Brexit election just weeks before the UK leaves. Chaos? You haven't seen the half of it.
7/7

This is an abridged version of my weekly contribution to @pmdfoster’s daily Brexit Newsletter.

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