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👇Our July recap thread!
1/. Performance
Bitcoin increasingly trading sideways & consolidating around $10k - down 10% in July, up 170% YtD
No alt season - altcoins are high beta on the way down - ether down 26%, up 60% YtD
1/. Performance
Bitcoin increasingly trading sideways & consolidating around $10k - down 10% in July, up 170% YtD
No alt season - altcoins are high beta on the way down - ether down 26%, up 60% YtD
2/. Volatility
BTC moved on average 5.5% daily
In fact, two very distinct regimes:
nearly record high volatility into the Facebook hearings ~8% a day
nearly record low volatility in the last two weeks ~2.6% a day
BTC moved on average 5.5% daily
In fact, two very distinct regimes:
nearly record high volatility into the Facebook hearings ~8% a day
nearly record low volatility in the last two weeks ~2.6% a day
3/. Volatility
Expectations of options traders for future volatility is starting to sell off against this backdrop
Expecting a 4.8% daily move over the next three months - still high by recent historical standards
Expectations of options traders for future volatility is starting to sell off against this backdrop
Expecting a 4.8% daily move over the next three months - still high by recent historical standards
4/. Volumes
Volumes retreated compared to record June numbers with open interesting also contracting
Average daily volumes at the CME were ~$400mln
Volumes retreated compared to record June numbers with open interesting also contracting
Average daily volumes at the CME were ~$400mln
5/. Volumes
Bitmex's XBTUSD perpetual swap traded on average $4.46bln daily
Bitmex's XBTUSD perpetual swap traded on average $4.46bln daily
6/. Volumes
The options market continues to grow nicely with average daily volumes slightly below $40mln notional
The options market continues to grow nicely with average daily volumes slightly below $40mln notional
7/. Key Developments - Libra
Facebook's ambitions with Libra is not making everyone happy to say the least
It's clear the United States will fight any attempt that could threaten the supremacy of the US Dollar
Facebook's ambitions with Libra is not making everyone happy to say the least
It's clear the United States will fight any attempt that could threaten the supremacy of the US Dollar
8/. Key Developments - Libra
Cryptos were in the spotlight in DC in July
The government pressure was probably more intense and earlier than Facebook expected
There will be no move fast and break things this time around
coindesk.com/facebook-libra…
Cryptos were in the spotlight in DC in July
The government pressure was probably more intense and earlier than Facebook expected
There will be no move fast and break things this time around
coindesk.com/facebook-libra…
9/. Key Developments - Global Easing
$14tln+ of sovereign debt is now negative yielding
The entire Swiss rates curve is in negative territories
The Fed cut interest rates for the first time in 10y
UBS is starting to charge its HNW customers 75bps on their cash deposits
$14tln+ of sovereign debt is now negative yielding
The entire Swiss rates curve is in negative territories
The Fed cut interest rates for the first time in 10y
UBS is starting to charge its HNW customers 75bps on their cash deposits
10/. Key Developments - Global Easing
Against this brackdrop, the Gold and Bitcoin bulls are getting more vocal by the day
Against this brackdrop, the Gold and Bitcoin bulls are getting more vocal by the day
11/. Key Developments - BitMEX / CFTC
The largest crypto derivatives exchange is being probed by the US CFTC on whether US traders are allowed on the platform
The platform saw 15% outflows of its total BTC holdings this month
The largest crypto derivatives exchange is being probed by the US CFTC on whether US traders are allowed on the platform
The platform saw 15% outflows of its total BTC holdings this month
12/. Key Developments - BitMEX / CFTC
Liquidity was unaffected - order book depth actually gradually improved throughout the month - a function of reduced volatility in the market
Currently 39bps b/o spread to trade 1,000 BTC futures
Liquidity was unaffected - order book depth actually gradually improved throughout the month - a function of reduced volatility in the market
Currently 39bps b/o spread to trade 1,000 BTC futures
13/. Key Developments - Deutsche Bank
Banks are increasingly feeling the pain of a decade of increased regulation, low volatility, low rates & limited innovation
The 18k employees Deutsche Bank layoff was an earthquake in the City but failed to convince markets
Banks are increasingly feeling the pain of a decade of increased regulation, low volatility, low rates & limited innovation
The 18k employees Deutsche Bank layoff was an earthquake in the City but failed to convince markets
14/. Seasonality & correlations
Not an unusual pattern to see a softer Q3 before a Q4 run up!
Not an unusual pattern to see a softer Q3 before a Q4 run up!
15/. Seasonality & correlations
SPX, Gold and Bitcoins returned in the same direction the last four years
2019 seems to be a good vintage year for global assets or a bad one for fiat currencies!
SPX, Gold and Bitcoins returned in the same direction the last four years
2019 seems to be a good vintage year for global assets or a bad one for fiat currencies!
16/. Seasonality & correlations
In July, crypto markets stopped playing with traders' free time & resumed with quiet weekends
In July, crypto markets stopped playing with traders' free time & resumed with quiet weekends
17/. Seasonality & correlations
The new stable coin projects have failed so far to derail Tether as a systemic force behind crypto markets
USDT total market cap the bitcoin price seem correlated
The new stable coin projects have failed so far to derail Tether as a systemic force behind crypto markets
USDT total market cap the bitcoin price seem correlated
18/. Seasonality & correlations
Bitcoin is flatlining but ratio of longs liquidated to shorts on Bitmex is 2x
Longs seems to be structurally more leveraged overall
Bitcoin is flatlining but ratio of longs liquidated to shorts on Bitmex is 2x
Longs seems to be structurally more leveraged overall
19/. Seasonality & correlations
Funding is an important indicator of market's positioning
Currently flashing neutral
Funding is an important indicator of market's positioning
Currently flashing neutral
20/. More data on sk3w.co
We are actively hiring for a variety of technical roles - join us!
➡️careers@sk3w.co
We are actively hiring for a variety of technical roles - join us!
➡️careers@sk3w.co
