Thread by @Yascha_Mounk

After ~15 months in office, the populist government in Italy is about to collapse.

This is actually very bad news: Matteo Salvini, the leader of the xenophobic League, is almost certain to become the country’s next Prime Minister.

[Thread.]

In May 2018, a strange government formed:

The Five Star Movement, a populist movement with strong roots in Italy's left, became the senior coalition partner.

The Lega, a northern independence movement turned ultranationalist populist party, was the junior partner.

Since Five Stars had won ~ twice as many votes as the Lega, they got to pick the Prime Minister and many other important positions.

But it quickly became apparent that Salvini, who became the country’s interior minister, knew how to use shameless stunts to dominate the media.

Salvini was also the only politician who could claim that he delivered.

While Five Star’s economic promises turned out to be unmanageable, Salvini kept his vow to reduce the number of undocumented migrants coming into Italy by embracing unrepentantly cruel policies.

As a result, the Lega (green) kept gaining in the polls while Five Stars (yellow) collapsed.

Even regions that had once been left-wing strongholds, like Tuscany, or skeptical of the League's northern origins, like Calabria, supported it in huge numbers in the European Elections.

Seizing the opportunity to expand his power, Salvini is now breaking up the governing coalition.

If he gets his way, new elections will be held in the early fall. And according to current polls, those would deliver the most right-wing government in Italy’s postwar history.

Two important implications:

First, this is one more sign that the populist wave has not crested.

In many countries, like Italy, it’s just about to roll on shore.

(Is this the way that metaphor works?)

Second, because of its roots on the left, and a reliance on (seemingly) democratic decision-making procedures, a lot of pundits and academics have hailed the Five Star Movement as a hope for the future.

They should be deeply sobered by its actual record.

The Five Star Movement has:

* Gone along with Salvini’s deeply xenophobic policies

* Been controlled by a tiny clique of secretive decision-makers

* Proven to be a gateway for the far-right, with a lot of voters going from traditional left parties to Five Stars to the Lega

Italy is a wonderful country: one of the most beautiful places on earth, with people who are often incredibly warm and welcoming in person.

It is also in deep crisis, and about to be ruled by the most xenophobic head of government in Europe.

This is a very bitter moment.

[End]