Thread by @Yascha_Mounk

In two important state elections today, the far-right Alternative for Germany posted massive gains, but thankfully fell short of coming top.

[Thread.]

In Saxony, a traditionally right-leaning part of East Germany, which has seen an especially large number of xenophobic attacks over the past years, the AfD took about 28% of the vote.

But it was beaten by Merkel's CDU, which profited from having a very popular state premier.

In Brandenburg, a traditionally left-leaning part of East Germany surrounding Berlin, the AfD took about 23% of the vote.

But it was beaten by the SPD, who must now count 27% of the vote in one of its heartlands as a relative success.

Though the AfD failed to come top, the extent of the shift to the far-right that Germany experienced over the past years comes into focus if you look at who has gained or lost votes.

In Saxony, for example, the AfD posted massive gains - and nobody else improved significantly.

Saxony and Brandenburg showcase two trends that may continue to dominate German politics for a while to come: fragmentation and radicalization.

In both, the grand coalition of SPD and CDU retained a slim majority at the last elections. In both states, that's no longer the case.

As a result, it's more and more difficult to form governing coalitions.

In Brandenburg, a coalition of SPD, the Left, and the Greens retains a majority.

In Saxony, the CDU and the SPD will likely go into a coalition with the Greens.

Both would entail a huge ideological span.

Tl;dr:

The AfD is not about to take over the German government. For now, it failed to come top in some of its strongest states.

But despite radicalizing, it's a growing presence in German politics, rendering ideologically coherent coalitions impossible in many states.

[End.]