Thread by @fascinatorfun

Wow ⁦@ComRes⁩

Who thought a question in these terms was even a remotely sound polling question?

It isn’t just that it is VERY leading. It also bungs in a series of activities without explaining illegality OR consequences (eg suspending parliament).

@drjennings has kindly supplied this short explainer about constructing good survey questions when seeking “yes”/“no” answers, for those who are wondering.

https://twitter.com/anthonybmasters/status/1161038046751539201?s=21

I known @thatginamiller has been using @ComRes for some of her Brexit related polling, but if this is the quality of @ComRes polling questions I suspect she would want to review future use.

I am a bit shocked. It would not have squeezed past a stats & research module examiner

Here is Dr Jennings @drjennings comments @thatginamiller and @ComRes

https://twitter.com/drjennings/status/1161041762892374016?s=21

He wraps it up like this

“Boris" (are we really doing this?) "needs to" (leading) "by any means" (leading) "including" (so not confined to prorogation?) "if necessary" (leading) "in order to" (leading)...”

It feels like they have given the poll to someone really inexperienced

Compare this to how @YouGov approached the same issue with remarkably different outcomes.

https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1161018469451784192?s=21

ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council

This is from the BPV website.

“The validity of the poll depends on ...whether it asked impartial questions, and whether full information about the questions asked and results obtained are provided.”

britishpollingcouncil.org/a-journalists-…

*BPC*

Since I did this thread Peter Keller (Ed YouGov Director) has written an article on what is wrong with the poll itself, let alone The Telegraph’s exposition.

Let’s start with the Yes Prime Minister lesson

Then add the Peter Keller explanation as to why THE ORDER and the CONTENT of questions matter as they can push those responding in particular direction.

theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/pe…

1/ "Parliament is out of touch with the British public"
2/ "On Brexit, most MPs seem to ignore the wishes of voters and push their own agendas"
3/ "The Queen should remain above politics and refuse to get involved in Brexit"

And only then:

4/ "Boris needs to deliver Brexit by any means, including suspending parliament if necessary, in order to prevent MPs stopping it “

combining 2 distinct issues: Brexit itself, and getting the whole saga resolved soon.

Despite "Brexit by any means" previous answer genuine majorities (that is, everyone including "don't knows") expressed concern: cost of living increases (concerned 68%, not concerned 24%, don't know 8%), supplies of medicines (59%, 32%, 10%)supplies of fresh food (53%, 40%, 8%).

Keller suggests :“Now, had THOSE questions been asked first, followed immediately by a more neutrally-worded question about a no-deal Brexit, I suspect the Telegraph would not have the headline or story it wanted.”

“Actually, that's more than a suspicion. Two weeks ago, another poll asked people how they would feel if the UK leaves the EU without a deal. Just 28% said they would be "pleased", while 49% said "betrayed"; 23% were don't knows. The pollster that time? ...It was ComRes.”