Thread by @sajithpai

I think a lot about this chart, depicting decline of U.S. Print advertising from its peak in '05 of ~$50b to ~$15b now.

I have been curious about when Indian print advtg whose growth has slowed but still kept rising would finally peak.

Chart via journalism.org/chart/sotnm-ne…
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Think we have the answer now.

It likely peaked in FY19 at ~₹21k crs.

From what we see of Q1 - FY20, all major print groups are sharing decline numbers for print ads.

HT - 9% ⬇️ in Q1 (vs Q1 FY19)
Jagran - 2% ⬇️
Bhaskar - 3% ⬇️
& Times / BCCL - 11% ⬇️ (industry gossip)
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For insiders this isn't surprising; it was kind of inevitable given what they saw in West, and the rise of digital in India.

Print also had disproportional share of ad spent in India (vs its share of time spent).

See a prev tweet of mine
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https://twitter.com/sajithpai/status/995627049535528961

What is challenging for Indian print majors is that they have relied hugely on print ad rev (~80% of overall rev) & dont have much expectations from print subs (loss-leader) / digital ads / digital subs.

If you see NYT, FT, WaPo they have survived on subs (print, digital).
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Unlikely that Indian majors will be able to command anything significant from subs - print or digital (barring maybe Indian Express).

Content has never been a focus area for them, and quality isnt good enough to put a paywall.
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Also, if you see the recent IRS Q2 survey results, readership is clearly on a decline. Further stress on circ / subs rev.

This chart is telling. Jiofication means lower income consumers / neoliterates are moving to video not print.

Chart via mruc.net/uploads/posts/…
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Look at the last 2 cols!

(Q2 vs Q1 but rolling average, so actual decline may well be sharper). All numbers are in '000s.

AIR = Avg issue readership (did u read yday?)
TR = Total Readership (read atleast 1/last week)
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Digital ads too isn't sizeable to overcome print ad decline.

Times/BCCL is the largest at perhaps ₹500-600crs (news sites' online ad rev). HT, Bhaskar, Jagran all ₹50-75crs each likely. Overall Digital ads for print cos will be ~₹1k crs. Puny. Youtube made ₹2k crs LY.
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What will this look like in 5-10yrs from now?

I expect Indian print sector revenue to shrink by ~50%, perhaps even more, by 2025. 'First gradually, then suddenly.'

It will mean shrinking headcount, circulation and the likes.
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Yes, there will be huge stress all around, but I also feel it will unleash lots of innovation, as journalists come out of legacy media to launch online sites / shows, newsletters, podcasts and the likes. I am hopeful it will allow a 1000 new blogs to bloom.
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Apologies if I have been unduly pessimistic about Indian print. But I am only stating out loud what has been / is being whispered in boardrooms across Indian print media houses. (I know, for I have worked in one myself).
11/11.