Thread by @sajithpai

Tweet thread alert!

Is it just me, or did others too feel that this yr’s Mary Meeker deck was a tad muted?

Anyway, here is my take / what I found interesting. Reflects my biases!

Report is here
bondcap.com/report/itr19/

#marymeeker #2019internettrends #internettrends2019
1/

A shout out to a couple threads on this topic that is worth a check

@jeremysliew

https://twitter.com/jeremysliew/status/1139521013253718016

@investing_city

https://twitter.com/investing_city/status/1138549558789779458

2/

Begin.

As internet penetration > 50% of global popn, internet adoption growth rates are slowing down.
3/

New smartphone shipments at ~1.4bn units in 2018 – declined for 2nd yr in a row.
4/

India has ~450m internet users, abt 2x that not on internet = 12% of global internet user.

I disagree with this number. IMHO the Indian internet is 110% of Whatsapp MAUs (last hear 294m MAUs) - so around 325-350m.
5/

Ecomm at ~16% of US Retail; 12% growth. Catching up w China and SKorea.
6/

Great chart showing time spent share vs ad spend share; mobile has 33% share of both; similarly TV at 34% and desktop at 18%.

Look at print and radio. Here’s my bet. I don’t think with those two, time spent and ad share will converge!
7/

Mobile ads (~$75b) > desktop (~$35b) in U.S.

Programmatic ads now nearly 2/3rds of display ads; means lower CPMs and pressure on publishers.
8/

What is driving mobile ads?

Better targeting and personalization led by Machine Learning advances.
9/

I love Stitch Fix. A great example of discover-led commerce: "When you don’t know what you want to buy".

Also terrific blend of Machine and human intelligence.
10/

In developed economies, mobile is overtaking TV when it comes to time spent!
11/

The rise of Podcasting.

I found it interesting that the NYT has scored big here. Remember reading that The Daily makes ad rev in the low eight figures ($10-12m?)
12/

Nextdoor may well be the biggest uncloned startup in India (happy to be educated if otherwise).

Every other U.S. unicorn theme (barring Juul) seems to have been played in India.
13/

Rappi – The Dunzo of LatAm, recently funded by Softbank.

@sumerjuneja - Dunzo needs some love too!
14/

We are taking more pics than ever. And Silicon Valley (and China) is getting better at doing more with it.
15/

Fortnite is the new Facebook. Games are the new social networks.
16/

Interesting insight on how the freemium model started with Gaming (Runescape), and then moved to Enterprise (e.g., Dropbox, Slack) and now is entering Consumer (e.g., Spotify, Canva)
17/

Freemium business model growth driven by
-cloud deployment – Amazon, Google & Microsoft makes ~$14b / quarter on cloud.
-Low-friction digital payments ~60% of daily transactions in U.S.
18/

Cool-looking chart.

About 1/8th of the data on the internet is machine-readable.

In about 5 yrs it will get to a third. Fascinating to see what new startups and ideas emerge thanks to that.
19/

In 3 yrs, the share of encrypted data has jumped from 53% to 87%!
20/

At some point soon, I hope that grey line will start climbing up.
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On-demand is growing both from the demand and the supply side. We see this in India too.

I hope the labour ministry in India will soon start tracking ondemand labour nums actively.
22/

I found this surprising. Would have expected remote workers to be a higher percentage though.
23/

Really interesting. Offline enrollment numbers are dropping in the U.S. Largely due to rising tuition fees.
24/

For all the noise about Lambda, bear in mind that it is still tiny.

One reason why we have been skeptical about present bootcamp models at Blume is the inverse relationship between quality and scale.
25/

Wonder if a DesiKids could emerge for India1 moms to teach India1A / India2 kids.
26/

This is a great chart. Free doesn’t always work in edu.
27/

Why Trump came to power.

Incredible chart this, showing that we are nearing the peak of foreign-born as a % of U.S. popn. No wonder identity politics is rising.
28/

That green line needs to keep rising.
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The dragon is slowing!
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The Chinese internet is galloping along though. Led by short video consumption (Douyin / TikTok, Kuaishou etc.)

I wonder what the Indian equivalent of mobile data usage is. We have a run rate of ~55EB (not the same as total) per livemint.com/industry/telec…
31/

Games (or trends from games) driving innovation in payments, ecommerce, retail, edu in China. Remember earlier slide on how freemium moved from gaming -> enterprise -> consumer!
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Examples of games and their impact on mobile products across commerce, retail and edu in China.
33/

Whatsapp product roadmap for India and Africa?
34/

"All messaging apps expand to include a transaction / payment feature."
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Startup ideas from China. You’re welcome.
36/

Why isn’t Consumer 2 Government a big thing in India? Is anybody building this for India? I would love to hear from you.
37/

Whew! Am exhausted!

In a line, this year’s Mary Meeker deck was more of the same. No dramatically different mega insight from the year before. Lot of tiny interesting snippets though. Still impressive to do this year after year and weave in a compelling narrative. Bravo!

38/

Just a suggestion. Next yr's deck would benefit IMHO fm sections on India / Africa / LatAm. There is lots happening in these markets, and it would help if the startup stories from here got just a bit of love globally!
39/

Fin.

Pls do share your thoughts on the deck, and if you feel I missed out something major!

40/40