Thread by @YadlinAmos

The strike in Beirut and the IDF spokesperson outing of Iran and Hizbullah’s “precision project” are additional steps in the campaign against it. Yet, diplomacy, info ops and signaling have so far fallen short of stopping the project.
1/11

Today we learned that Hizbullah already has dozens of accurate missiles, and the campaign to prevent an arsenal of thousands is still before us.
2/11

The “precision project” has a dangerous potential for Israel’s national security, and if it proceeds as planned it will enable Iran and its proxies to severely hit our infrastructure, military assets and our populace.
3/11

The Campaign Between Wars in Syria has seriously delayed the project, inflicted setbacks upon it and mounted obstacles in its way, but has not stopped it. Iran reacted by expanding it to Iraq and Lebanon, and Israel followed suit.
More in :
inss.org.il/publication/th…
4/11

It is simpler to hit threatening missiles upstream and early on: before they are produced, before deployment and before launch, than when are incoming. The dilemma is how to avoid counter-operations from escalating to war which we would like to postpone, and preferably prevent.
5

Exposing the senior Iranians and Hizbullah members leading the project is a warning, seeking to deter and demonstrate that Israel has penetrated their cloak of secrecy. Implicitly, it means that it can also reach them.
6/11

While Israel awaits Hizbullah’s “calculated” retaliation on the Beirut strike and its dead terrorists, Nasrallah should ponder on three aspects in his calculus:
7/11

1️⃣ The severe threat of the precision project to Israel may bring Israel to take higher risk than what he currently assesses, in order to avoid worse threats in the future.
n an all-out war, surprising both sides.
8/11

2️⃣ “Calculated attack” is an tricky business. It is impossible to precisely predict its results, let alone its consequences. Thirteen years ago Nasrallah approved a “calculated” abduction operation which ended in an all-out war, surprising both sides.
9/11

3️⃣ The unprecedented brunt of such war will fall on Lebanon, but will focus on its Shiite sect and on Hizbullah.
10/11

Israel should prepare:
1️⃣To thwart Hizbullah’s immediate response.
2️⃣To prudently navigate the risks for escalation, avoiding a third Lebanon war.
3️⃣Should deterrence and diplomacy fall short of stopping the “precision project”, to prepare and stop in a preemptive campaign.
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