Thread by @gilbeaq

1. This last Wednesday I participated in the Minerals under Water Symposium at the University of Delaware. Deep sea mining used to be the future but the future is now.

There are some big implications for the energy sector. Some highlights (thread)

2. First, our research (@payneinstitute w/@MBazilian) focused on oceanic methane hydrates. Hydrates are natural gas trapped in a cage-like structure of water ice at high pressures and low temperature. They are found off almost all major coastlines (source: World Ocean Review)

3. The scale of the hydrate resource is huge - it dwarfs ALL existing fossil fuel reserves. Some estimates measure potential reserves in thousands of years of human ENERGY consumption. This UNEP review has an extensive overview the current status wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/hand…

4. As a quick aside, this is yet another data point in peak oil or peak fossil not being a thing on any generational or climate timescale

5. We are now developing the technologies to extract hydrates, largely adapted from O&G drilling. We are not at commercial production, but we are approaching it. One technique is worth noting; we can displace the CH4 in hydrates with CO2, creating massive offshore CCS reservoirs

6. Hydrates are important because, at a national level, they are a readily available natural gas source without traditional resource constraints. China, India, South Korea, and India are all looking at hydrates for energy security reasons. Climate is a secondary concern

7. Our research examines how international governance of oceans handles hydrate ownership/production. While hydrates are in territorial waters, most often they are in exclusive economic zones (EEZs), zones up to 200 miles from country shores (Source: Flanders Marine Institute)

8. EEZs make up just above 40% of global oceans. In EEZs, countries have exclusive jurisdiction over mineral rights. However, the extent of many EEZs are disputed, including in areas with hydrates. South China Sea and the Arctic are worth particular note

9. Internationally, however, >50% of global oceans are outside of EEZs and thus constitute the global commons. In these areas, any mineral production, including hydrates, is governed by a UN body, the International Seabed Authority (ISA) sites.temple.edu/ticlj/files/20…

10. Most likely production of hydrates will occur in EEZs, making them primarily a national sovereign concern. We examine several cases to better understand potential governance implications here, including transboundary fish stocks and existing oil and natural gas law

11. We also examine space resources because 1) the US is not a signatory to the UN Convention Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) which establishes ISA, and 2) the US has laws allowing Americans to extract resources in space, which is one of the other major global commons beyond the ocean

12. While we researched hydrates, the rest of the Symposium focused on deep sea mining of minerals, particularly as they are governed by the ISA. As the US hasn’t signed UNCLOS, we are excluded from potentially participating in High Seas mining

13. There are 3 major types of deep sea mining, in order of negative environmental consequences: hydrothermal vents, seabed crusts, and polymetallic nodules. Vents are particularly worrisome pewtrusts.org/-/media/assets…

14. Each type of deep sea deposit produces rare earths and other valuable metals, such as nickel, copper, manganese ores, even gold. Metal demand is being driven, in large part, by prospective needs for electric vehicle and other batteries newamerica.org/resource-secur…

15. The ISA, as required by UNCLOS, has developed and implemented a permit system for exploration of these sea resources. It is in the process of creating an exploitation permit system, but may slip past its 2020 goal/deadline

16. While the ISA has jurisdiction over the High Seas, countries retain sovereignty over the EEZs. Hydrothermal vents and seabud crusts may well be mined soon in EEZs, without significant oversight and worrisome environmental implications. One potential mining location is Brazil

17. However, polymetallic nodules may be low impact. Nodules are potato-sized balls of metal ores that have formed in the Ocean and fallen to the sea floor. The extraction technology for them involves sending a robot to go pick them up. They are largely in ISA jurisdiction

17.a. The primary environmental proposition for deep sea mining is that nodule gathering is very low impact ecologically and, because nodules are multi-metal, one operation allows you to displace three or more terrestrial mines, which have terrible impacts

18. For exploration contracts, the ISA established a first-of-its-kind Regional Environmental Management Plan for nodules in the CCK, a huge swath of the Pacific between Hawaii and Mexico. Its not perfect, but it’s a model for future exploitation contracts pewtrusts.org/en/research-an…

19. One of the important takeaways from the Symposium is that we have a unique opportunity; this is the first time we can regulate a major extractive industry before it begins and make it as environmentally friendly as possible project-syndicate.org/commentary/sea…

20. But the US doesn’t have much power to influence that if we aren’t in UNCLOS or ISA. The concern is that UNCLOS imposes some profit/technology sharing for deep sea mining to developing countries. In order to ‘protect’ our businesses from that, we aren’t participating

21. However, due to several reasons, including the US Navy’s interest in freedom of navigation, UNCLOS is de facto US law. We effectively are just keeping US companies from getting ISA contracts. . IIRC US deep sea mining law even requires an international convention

21.a. US companies and citizens are participating in deep sea mining anyways, they just need an international sponsor, depriving the US of tax revenue, influence, and more. GREAT idea...

22. Anywho, that’s all I got for now. A big thanks to the University of Delaware, @saleem_ali and @DrAndrewThaler for the invitation to participate