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Apropos to some views suggesting "India story" is over in Kashmir, a thread explaining how things work in Kashmir:
1. In 30 years, Kashmiris have become experts on what to say in front of whom. So same person will say three different things in front of a foreign journalist, Indian journalist, and a local journalist. And to people close to him (s)he will say very different things.
2. In the 90s, some English-speaking university student would be made to wear a mask and be paraded in front of a clueless foreign correspondent as JKLF commander. Next day same man would appear elsewhere as Hizbul commander.
3. From long (private) conversations with Kashmiris, my takeaway is that the removal of 370 has been accepted. People realise that the clock cannot be turned back. So they want to move on.
4. There is also a realisation that New Delhi has a point to prove in Kashmir this time and that there will be very little tolerance for "Intifada."
5. Will clashes happen? Some very likely, but nothing out of box. Will more men join terrorist groups? Again, no unusual spike in my view. Usual "Photo with gun" on social media, dead in 6 months.
6. North Kashmir (Sopore, Baramulla) is less willing this time to continue with madness of 30 years. South may continue for some time and then give up. PDP is finished. NC may be able to salvage, subject to how many Ram bhajans Farooq Abdullah is willing to sing.
7. As for "Indian story" in Kashmir, look out for Kashmiris in three-piece suits meeting Amit Shah. The Indian story will only deepen in Kashmir in the coming months.
8. How will normalcy be restored? Clue lies in how it was restored post 1963 Hazratbal crisis when the holy relic was stolen. Civil curfew continued for weeks as Kashmiris agitated for punishing people guilty of the theft.
9. Finally the government and the opposition came up with a face-saving formula. The padlocks of a few shops were broken by the police, giving the shopkeepers a reason to come back and resume business.
10. Rest assured, the Kashmiris will find their way. As a senior army commander in Kashmir is fond of saying: the Kashmiris are always on the winning side.
