, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
With a strong convectively coupled Kelvin wave predicted to pass the Atlantic between 9/15-9/25, I'm expecting an uptick in Atlantic hurricane activity. A number of ECMWF EPS members are highlighting risk for a hurricane on 9/20 approaching Caribbean islands.
Here's the strong Kelvin wave I mention. Note that this wave will project onto the MJO band with a wavenumber 1 pattern emerging in tropical circulation.
Here's another way to look at the ECMWF EPS genesis and intensity risk for tropical cyclones. Note a number of members are highlighting hurricane force winds near the Caribbean. This is around 9/20 or so.
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