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CFSv2 predicts a robust Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave to pass the Atlantic in 3-5 weeks. This is an intraseasonal state that supports elevated levels of Atlantic hurricane activity. I'm buying in to the strong MJO idea due to the S.H. Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event.
Significant warming at the pole in the lower stratosphere acts to cool the equatorial band upper-troposphere, increasing upwelling along the equator. This favors for strong MJO events during such conditions.
Here's the hovmoller view of the MJO. Note the CFSv2 is too slow with the MJO propagation in Week 4-5. This suggests that the window in which we could see another round of robust Atlantic hurricanes will be late September into early October.
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