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Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
, 4 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
So is deal possible? My view remains possible but unlikely. A lot can happen over next 3 weeks - & EU side only really expected progress after Tory conference. What are new data points? Clearly some softening forces in Cabinet. "Get Brexit Done" slogan at Tory conference 1/4
.@BorisJohnson reportedly saying Spartans won't get everything they want. Also growing speculation the DUP could go further - & live with a time-limited backstop, something we've long argued could be landing zone between two sides (& which many MS support) 2/4
However, not much expected from @DavidGHFrost & @SteveBarclay in Bxl today. Window is now very small. EU side needs real texts, not just ideas at this point. Plus very unclear to EU whether softening forces are in any way ascendant & whether, as reality of deal starts to bite 3/4
A deal can actually be done. Fixes to Irish border are, after all, quite binary in the end ENDS
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Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
I do think this another unwise & unhelpful intervention by @eucopresident. It certainly does NOT reflect view of some key EU capitals, who actually believe BJ wants a deal but that his starting point was too far apart from EU position. Still, they would like to tread much more 1/
cautiously than this. Clearly see game being played in London but want to rise above it. As one adviser to a Head of State of a large MS told me in the last few days: "Our position won't change just because UK shouts louder." This is about substance (SM integrity; Ireland) 2/3
Not tactics & calculations about what election may/may not deliver. EU27 very capable of reading polls. They see risks of BJ majority & no deal after election, but can't sacrifice principles above. Tusks's tweet risks blurring that message; playing into politics in London ENDS
Read 3 tweets
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Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
We think @BorisJohnson will pursue a strategy some aides describe as “being dragged, kicking and screaming” into an extension, so Leave voters know he is doing it against his will. This is why he still promises “no delay” even though he knows prospects of a deal are remote 1/4
He may play for time on 19 Oct, so the Benn Act is tested in courts. But politically, outright refusal to obey the law is a non-starter; it could provoke several resignations including those of Geoffrey Cox & @RobertBuckland. Sooner or later, BJ will send letter required by Act
It will likely describe the proposed delay as “Parliament’s extension”, not one sought by Govt. Initially, Boris allies were nervous about impact of an extension. But during last week’s Tory conference they have clearly become more confident - cheered by opinion poll & focus 3/4
Read 4 tweets
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Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
After spending 3 days in Bxl talking with senior EU & member state officials about Brexit, here's how I see things. Thread 1/
Mood darkened somewhat over 3 days I've been here. Initial reaction to UK proposals were cautious, but open. The @Europarl_EN wanted to reject plan outright; @JunckerEU & @EU_Commission thought this premature. Juncker's initial statement was welcomed by MS & seen as right line 2/
to take, as @EU_Commission & several EU capitals recognise Govt has taken some big steps - on regulatory side (scope of what in NI would align to EU standards; plus UK conceding role for ECJ). 2 problems, widely reported: 1) customs border in Ireland & 2) governance & Stormont 3/
Read 25 tweets

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Sergio Graziosi
@GraziosiSergio
What the hell is @jeremycorbyn doing?
Why is he enabling #Tory #Brexit?
Is this the final betrayal?
No, it isn't.
It's the predicted effect of decisions taken 2-3 years ago. All things considered, it's not as bad as it could have been (thanks to #StopBrexit crowd).

Thread.
1/n
To understand why, I need to outline 2 important mechanisms that most people, politicians and commentators seem to ignore, dismiss or simply don't get. They have different and somewhat opposite consequences, but are both decisive in the current & foreseeable predicaments.
2/n
1st and foremost: the biggest constraint that applies to political decision-making comes from the past decisions & policies.
It is a massive constraint.
Cameron COULD NOT convincingly campaign for #Remain, because his own policies CREATED the discontent channelled by #Leave.
3/n
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Vincent Bevins
@Vinncent
Brazil votes for President today. The big question is whether or not extreme-right candidate Bolsonaro can win in the first round, or if we will have a run-off in three weeks. Winning today looks unlikely for him. He'd need a big last-minute jump in support. But not impossible.
If we have a run-off in Brazil (like usual) it's a new ball game. Elections aren't like in US that start years in advance. Center-left candidate Haddad barely campaigned, and never debated Bolsonaro. A quarter of voters were undecided in the last poll. But B is clear front-runner
(Don't hold me to this but yesterday I said something like, I think Bolsonaro has a 5-10% chance of winning today, and a 60-70% chance of winning in the second round - but I really do think a lot could happen over three weeks. That's a long time here.)
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Brexitshambles
@brexit_sham
#Tory conference on the horizon & the 'no deal' #Brexit vultures circle the carcass. All the usual suspects incl' Littlewood, Singham and @SteveBakerHW for the IEA. @isaby, @Jacob_Rees_Mogg, @DanielJHannan, @patel4witham, @andreajenkyns for @matthew_elliott's BrexitCentral......
Thick as thieves...... Hannan and Singham again, Bromund of 'Anglo-American Relations,' Steifel of the Cato Institute, for the Heritage Foundation. The IEA again, this time with Arlene Foster and Nigel Dodds of the #DUP.
Flies on a turd..... Elliott's infamous 'Tax Payers' Alliance,' with Priti Patel again, and, of course @LowTaxChloe. The Bruges Group, with Patel (again), Jenkyns (again) and @OwenPaterson.....
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Julian Sanchez
@normative
I am being reminded that there’s no real way to caveat “scenario X seems like a possibility with a 20% chance of being true” sufficiently that people won’t read it as “X is true.”
Which is unfortunate, because it’s usually a good exercise to make yourself consider a range of explanations rather than just planting a flag in the one you find most likely. Gives you a place to slot new information & update your probabilities.
It’s easy to miss the significance of new data points if you don’t have lower probability models loaded in the back of your head somewhere. If you do you’re more apt to notice when new info fits one of the initially disfavored models better than your operative one.
Read 3 tweets
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Sonia Mota
@SoniaKatiMota
#DW #TimSabastien:'The fact is there was no intensive fire by #Hamas gunmen was there? And we know that bc by the evening your Army spokesman #JonathanConricus said"our troops have not taken any sustained direct fire"
So why are u misrepresenting your situation?'#GazaMassacre🇵🇸
#DW #TimSebastien: "Isn't it strange that #Hamas who you said declared its intentions to break through the border to kill #Israel-is & to destroy your country, it offered no sustained direct fire to secure those aims?"
#MichaelOren:"And your point?"
#GazaMassacre #ICC4Israel #BDS
#GazaMassacre
#DW #TimSebastien:Your military spokesperson said several,that's not dozens?
#Oren:Last time there were 12 different protest points
DW:Again you're very diff. from your spokesperson?
Oren:Let's leave that aside
DW:I'm not leaving aside facts, do I leave aside facts?
Read 13 tweets
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
The #EU decision to trigger "nuclear option" #article7 against Poland is extremely awkward for UK and bad news for a deeply divided EU leadership that lost its head when Macron got elected. A 1/thread

telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/12/2…
First. The problem for Mrs May, both immediate and longer term.

1. The UK has invested huge amount of diplomatic capital in expanding UK-Polish relationship after #Brexit

German MEP on recent visit said Polish officials joking about sheer number of UK ministers who visited/2
They sent 150 Lightdragoons for Nato trip-wire, started Belvedere Forum and even deployed heavy weaponry (Wills n Kate) in the Summer.

Tomorrow May, Hammond and Boris all going. A PM, Fgn Sec and Chancellor in one hit. That's serious diplomatic love. /3
Read 16 tweets

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