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Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
.@BorisJohnson paints remarkably upbeat picture of EU negotiations in Commons statement on Supreme Court ruling. It will not be recognised in Brussels. He was told EU would never discuss new deal and non-permanent solutions or reopen WA, but is now doing so, he claimed 1/3
Boris devoting statement to attack on Labour & @jeremycorbyn. Challenged Labour & other parties to table no confidence motion tomorrow. They won’t. “What are they scared of?” 2/3
Surprisingly only a passing reference to court ruling. “It is no disrespect to the court to say I think it was wrong.” No sign of contrition demanded by Tory MPs who lost the whip. Unapologetic. Boris doubling down; Dominic Cummings still in control 3/3
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Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
So is deal possible? My view remains possible but unlikely. A lot can happen over next 3 weeks - & EU side only really expected progress after Tory conference. What are new data points? Clearly some softening forces in Cabinet. "Get Brexit Done" slogan at Tory conference 1/4
.@BorisJohnson reportedly saying Spartans won't get everything they want. Also growing speculation the DUP could go further - & live with a time-limited backstop, something we've long argued could be landing zone between two sides (& which many MS support) 2/4
However, not much expected from @DavidGHFrost & @SteveBarclay in Bxl today. Window is now very small. EU side needs real texts, not just ideas at this point. Plus very unclear to EU whether softening forces are in any way ascendant & whether, as reality of deal starts to bite 3/4
Read 4 tweets
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Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
.@BorisJohnson tells ITV News: “we will respect the law and we will come out on October 31.” Renewed chatter in Westminster & Whitehall that PM could send two letters - one asking for extension (to comply with Benn Act) & another undermining it 1/3
eg threatening to disrupt EU business (in hope EU denies request). Problem of course is that the EU might not play his game. They are following events in a London closely and won't risk being duped. However, as one senior EU official notes 2/3
"A50 refers to the constitutional procedures of the member state, which means that it is up to the UK Supreme Court to tell us which one is valid." Baroness Hale may yet have another decisive intervention to make 3/3
Read 3 tweets
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Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
.@jeremycorbyn wants election as soon as possible but after his conference speech calls for Johnson to resign, Labour sources make clear there will be no early vote of no confidence in Boris Govt. Only precondition before going for election is to ensure A50 extension happens 1/3
Not “locked in” yet. All opposition parties agree. Corbyn held talks by phone with other party leaders today. He is still insisting on being caretaker PM. But no sign of agreement with other parties on that 2/3
One option to prevent no deal and have election is to delay the election date ie November 3/3
Read 3 tweets

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@Wonkypolicywonk
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