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1/This week's "Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK]" is out. We look at MORE bearish positioning across equities, fund managers buying protection against at record rates, signs of a top in gold, and indicators that say a recession is still a long ways off, plus more. macro-ops.com/your-monday-di… 
2/ The latest BofAML Global FMS shows that fund managers have their lowest exposure to equities since 09’. Investors across the board — from professional to retail — are positioned for a crisis.
3/ From the same survey: Fund managers are buying protection against a drop in the market at their highest rate for which there is data. Once again… Investors are expecting DOOM.
4/The 1-month smoothed gap between bears (blue line) and bulls (orange line) is reverting from its widest point since the start of this year. #sentimentcheck
5/ This NYSE Up Volume Ratio shows that more money is flowing into stocks that are going up versus ones that are going down (chart via Sentiment Trader).
6/ When this happened in the past, the market tended to rally significantly over the following 6-12 months (table via Sentiment Trader).
7/ Its high odds that a new major leg of this bull market kicks off within the next 3-weeks — possibly following 1 more dip lower to trap the bears. If so, crowded safe-haven trades such as bonds and gold will get crushed. $GC_F is currently trading above its upper monthly BB.
8/ Net Spec positioning is near record levels. This trade is CROWDED. I think it pulls back to near the $1,400 level. Looked at on a daily timeframe, it appears to be forming a small H&S top. A break below the $1,490 level would confirm this short setup. $GC_F $GDX
9/ A few weeks ago I pointed out the bullish technical setup in Japan’s Nikkei and shared some fundamental factors for why I like long trade. @MacroCharts had a number of great charts in his breadth writeup and here’s one of my favorites on the Nikkei.
10/ Here's one for the bears. The 12mma of US Challenger Job-Cut Announcements. The vast majority of my labor indicators are either bullish or neutral but if this keeps trending higher then we’ll want to take note.
11/ Heavy truck sales (a solid leading econ indicator) though are right up near cycle highs. Heavy truck sales tend to lead both market tops and recessions by a good amount.
12/ Another leading recession indicator just made new cycle highs. Housing starts typically peak 2-years or more before a recession (the median lead time is 28m from expansion high to the start of a recession).
13/ And one final shot across the bear’s bow. Global PMI which has been contracting since May just put in its first positive month-over-month print since April of last year. Now, I know, hardly does 1-month make a trend but this might be the start of the turn.
