Thread by @BradMunchen

1) $TSLA August US sales down by a shocking 31% YoY (hello, demand cliff). But w/ prices for the Model 3 -20% YoY & S/X -16% YoY, the revenue drop must be even worse.

I had to check & glad I did. I get revenues down around -32% YoY for Jul/Aug, or a -$1bn YoY drop so far in Q3.

2) Q3'18 Model 3 ASP was $60K & S/X were $110K. For Q3'19 I'll use a $48K est for M3 (Zachboy CFO said Q2 ASP in the US was $50K; prices cut by 3.7% in Jul) & $89K est for S/X. This gets you -38% (-$1.1bn) YoY revenue drop in the US. Can $TSLA cut costs that much? I'll bet "no".

3) But overseas M3 sales should offset US declines, right? Not as much as you would think, largely b/c of the strong US$ this Q3, which should negatively impact profits:

Euro: -4% YoY; yuan: -3% YoY; Norway's krone: -6% YoY. This is just for Jul/Aug. $ strengthened more in Sept.

4) Using the same price cuts as the US for S/X/3, I get the following $-based revenue growth by major region in Jul/Aug:

1) China: +14% YoY (despite 50% volume growth)
2) NL: -2% YoY (depite 124% volume growth)
3) Norway: +198% YoY (despite 410% volume growth)

5) China: Model 3 sales have been weak (only 1.2K in July) & the yuan is 3% lower YoY vs the USD. The only reason revenues are +14% YoY is due to low comps from Q3'18, when China's retaliatory tariffs on US imports hurt S/X sales. Aug #'s not out, so using 2x July #'s.

6) Netherlands: Jul/Aug volumes were actually +124% YoY, but revenues appear -2% YoY. This is b/c of the steep drop in S/X volumes (-87% YoY) & the -3% YoY drop in the euro vs USD.

At only 6% of Jul/Aug sales volumes, NL had the lowest % of S/X sales mix. This hurts profits.

7) Finally Norway, the only region to see S/X sales growth in Jul/Aug (+41% YoY). Can't wait to see whether these S/X sales are to real consumers or fleet companies.

Jul/Aug revenues look to be up +198% YoY, but profitability should be dented by currency: NOK/USD -6% (!) YoY.

8) Above regions = 78% of 1H'19 revenues. These rough estimates show that, as of Jul/Aug, $TSLA revenues are down -32% YoY vs Q3 consensus of -6% YoY. Sept should be crucial, but in terms of volumes/ASP/forex, this is the worst lay up to a quarter end I've seen. One last thing:

9) While $TSLA fans will say "last month of the Q is the most important", I say this: 1) US hurdles steeper this month; 2) more US$ strength in Sept; 3) M3 increasingly unloved abroad; and 4) if $TSLA lost money growing revenues, you really think losses shrink when revenues fall?