,
4 tweets,
1 min read
Read on Twitter
This probability has increased lately in part because of the huge Democratic advantage in California, New York and a few other coastal states, where their surplus votes push up the popular vote %
Democratic vote share in California:
1996 : 51.1% (Clinton)
2016 : 61.7% (Hilary)
Democratic vote share in California:
1996 : 51.1% (Clinton)
2016 : 61.7% (Hilary)
In fact it is hard to digest today that California was won by Republicans in EVERY presidential election from 1968 to 1988
All fairly close elections
Hilary's share of 61.7% in 2016 is the highest for any candidate in California since Roosevelt in 1936
All fairly close elections
Hilary's share of 61.7% in 2016 is the highest for any candidate in California since Roosevelt in 1936
New York is somewhat different from California in that the Democrats have always been dominant in NY as compared to Cal
Even in 1996 (when politics was less polarized), Clinton won 59.5% of the vote in NY, with Bob Dole winning just 31%
Even in 1996 (when politics was less polarized), Clinton won 59.5% of the vote in NY, with Bob Dole winning just 31%
California is the one state which has turned in favor of Democrats in a massive way
It is also the most populous state. Thus this one state alone massively increases the likelihood of "winning popular vote, losing election" scenarios
It is also the most populous state. Thus this one state alone massively increases the likelihood of "winning popular vote, losing election" scenarios
