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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Ministers talk of a compromise of a 3-year time limit on backstop. Can't see EU accepting in that form, but a 3-year "deadline" for both parties to agree the form of alternative arrangements or words to that effect could be plausible.
But then this would be the serious negotiation we have never had with the EU - recognising red lines and building joint solutions, rather than posturing hopelessly. Back in January I wrote about some possible compromises. linkedin.com/pulse/brexit-d…
I'm not particularly optimistic about this Government reaching a deal with the EU, since the gap between their rhetoric and what even the most EU-critical voices admit is plausible remains huge.
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Is a UK EU deal still possible. Just about argues @pmdfoster. But that really is a marginal chance. The negotiating tactic was never to have to rely on Labour votes for a deal, it was the genuine belief that the EU would remove the backstop or there would be no-deal in Oct.
@pmdfoster For all the bluster, the Johnson approach has failed. Neither parliamentary opponents or the EU behaved as they were supposed to according to the masterplan. Plan B for bluster is going ok, but as per the Mourinho reference it was only adopted because the government was losing
@pmdfoster So now the Government's choice is between two things they promised not to do - a deal including a backstop, or a delay beyond October 31. Sure they'll try to change the choice, but the odds are against them making progress on either count.
Read 6 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Sad to see Matthew Parris become the latest in too long a line of remainers to trash anything between EU membership and no-deal as "vassalage" and argue healing will only come after one side - presumably his own - has won
There's no such thing as a perfect international relationship, particularly if you have a large economic bloc on your neighbourhood. No deal means real economic costs. Being part of it means shared institutions you might not like. A halfway house has flaws.
Hardly representative but I've had plenty of discussions with remainers and leavers on here who will admit they could live with a compromise that is actually available, typically but not always EEA. Not ideal, but scarcely vassalage of a nation.
Read 5 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Suspect not serious proposals if UK Government expect a full renegotiation in 10 days or so in time for an agreement ahead of the European Council (reminder - Brexit will not be negotiated at that meeting).
Bear in mind the pretty hostile reception given to the UK non-papers, and the increasingly terse nature of Commission communications about Brexit. Equally there's a blame game to be played, which is probably more pertinent.
We may all yet be surprised. But if either side are preparing the sort of movement that would lead to a Brexit deal they are disguising it very heavily as if they are preparing instead for something else.
Read 12 tweets

Related threads

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Katy Hayward
@hayward_katy
PM Johnson has made the removal of the #backstop the make-or-break matter when it comes to an exit deal with the EU.

So this thing is pretty damn important.

Time for a quick recap of what the 'loathed and detested' backstop actually is?

1/14
The #backstop is there specifically to meet the UK’s commitments to avoid a hard Irish border & protect the 1998 Good Friday (Belfast) Agreement & peace process.

This isn’t just of benefit or interest to the island of Ireland.
A broken Northern Ireland means a limping UK.
2/14
How does the #backstop work?
A v.brief explanation:

Having to apply & enforce customs procedures & rules around market access makes a border ‘hard’.
(just talking trade here)

Put simply, the greater the hassle in getting goods across a border, the harder that border is.

3/14
Read 14 tweets
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Katy Hayward
@hayward_katy
Sir Graham Brady plans to table an amendment the Withdrawal Agmt (WA) bill to make it law that Alternative Arrangements (AA) to the #backstop must be in place by end of transition period.
So, he says, the backstop wd still be in WA text but it wd be clear it'll never be used.
1/7
Brady says the proposal would simply be bringing forward the #AlternativeArrangements from the Political Declaration up front in the UK legislation implementing the WA.

The rationale is that by making backstop unusable, it will create a majority for the WA in the Commons.
2/7
Brady says EU & UK govt have to recognise that his AA amendment is only means of passing WA.

He admits he is yet to persuade the PM but claims that "Downing Street has people actively engaged in looking for alternative arrangements" to the #backstop.

3/7
Read 7 tweets
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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
EU-UK technical talks to find a’landing zone’ on the backstop are likely to go on throughout the week, possibly into the weekend and even Monday too /1
EU still insists it won’t touch the Withdrawal Agreement. As said many times before: it’s looking to provide assurances incl highlighting elements already in the backstop text such as the arbitration mechanism /2
Also being looked at is what’s being described as a timeline for ‘alternative arrangements’ to the backstop. Even if EU says technology doesn’t yet exist to replace the backstop, IF such technology emerges during the transition period then... /3
Read 5 tweets
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Nick Gutteridge
@nick_gutteridge
EU Parliament debate on Brexit getting under way in Brussels. Juncker, Barnier, Verhofstadt, Farage speaking. As ever, will post quotes below.
Melania Ciot, for Romanian presidency of Council, starts by asking how UK demands for 'alternative arrangements' can be reconciled with EU position Agreement is 'best deal possible'. Says: 'It's clear this state of affairs makes a disorderly exit of the UK more likely still.'
Jean-Claude Juncker: 'The Agreement remains the best and only deal possible. The EU said so in Nov, we said so in Dec, we said so after the first meaningful vote in Jan. The debate and votes in the HoC yesterday don’t change that. The Agreement will not be renegotiated.'
Read 19 tweets
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David M. Herszenhorn
@herszenhorn
Amid reports that #UK PM @theresa_may hopes to renegotiate the "backstop" provision on the Northern Ireland border, let's recall that she already made clear what she wants in her letter to #EU leaders before disastrously losing the #Brexit Withdrawal Treaty ratification vote. 1/
"This could be mitigated by changes to the backstop itself," she wrote to @eucopresident & @JunckerEU "Proposals for a way in which the UK could choose to exit the backstop unilaterally were it ever to come into force, or for a hard time limit... 2/
on the duration of the usage of the backstop, have been raised and discussed in Parliament. We have also raised them previously in negotiations." So there are her proposals, i.e. the EU should basically just cave on backstop in face of House of Commons defeat. But but but ... 3/
Read 17 tweets
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David M. Herszenhorn
@herszenhorn
#EU leaders issue five paragraph statement in long-shot bid to change 100+ minds in #UK Parliament "The Union stands by this agreement and intends to proceed with its ratification. It is not open for renegotiation.
2. The European Council reiterates that it wishes to establish as close as possible a partnership
with the United Kingdom in the future. It stands ready to embark on preparations immediately
after signature of the Withdrawal Agreement to ensure that negotiations can start as
soon as
possible after the UK’s withdrawal.
3. The European Council underlines that the backstop is intended as an insurance policy to
prevent a hard border on the island of Ireland and ensure the integrity of the Single Market. It
is the Union’s firm determination to work
Read 7 tweets

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