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Boris Johnson is right to call his proposal a “broad landing zone in which … a deal can begin to take shape.” As such, it is politically astute. If you accept the premise that the UK is leaving the EU single market and customs union, the proposal is also logical. 1/
He confirms that the Political Declaration must pitch at a mere free trade agreement with minimal regulatory alignment. That is not perfect but can be acceptable to the EU. The big ask is to get the EU to derogate from its normal practices of defending the internal market. 2/
The Commission feels queasy at having to trust the UK authorities to apply EU regulations on trade between Great Britain and Northern Ireland. (It will demand scrutiny.) We are lucky to have @PhilHoganEU as the Commissioner negotiating the future trade deal. 3/
The disaggregation of customs from other North-South controls will only work if there are no tariffs put on goods. (That’s not a bad goal in any case.) And there will be two transition periods: short for GB and long to forever for NI. (At least there’ll be transition.) 4/
The emphasis on devolved decision making is a difficult one for the EU, which preaches subsidiarity, to oppose. The UK becomes more federal. The rights conferred on Stormont gives equal power to Sinn Fein and the DUP. But is a vote every 4 years acceptable to Ireland? 5/
Dublin will play a large part in deciding the future under the agreed joint governance arrangements of Good Friday (probably enhanced). Otherwise the proposal keeps the joint governance arrangements of the Withdrawal Agreement. Good. 6/
I haven’t yet seen the legal texts, but I would not be surprised to find large chunks of the original Irish Protocol maintained. The goal is a decent UK-EU working partnership with peace and legitimacy for Ireland, North and South. END/
