Thread by @jonworth

Right then, my blog post about Implausible #Brexit Scenarios is now online!
jonworth.eu/implausible-br…

Summarised in this thread, there are 10 such scenarios!

1️⃣
May decides to revoke Article 50

She was given the power to invoke Article 50, so she has the power to revoke it. She writes a little letter to Donald Tusk and posts it en route to the Palace on 24 July!

2️⃣
Hunt wins the Tory Leadership, and aims for Soft Brexit

Were all the polls wrong, and Hunt could win still? And then he would do what we thought he always wanted - a Soft Brexit? It's a long shot!

3️⃣
Boris Johnson decides the best way to stay in power is to announce a Brexit referendum

Boris being Boris means Boris is about Boris. An election would be dangerous. And he has no majority. And doesn't really believe in Brexit anyway. Put it to the people!

4️⃣
Boris Johnson decides to tone down the rhetoric, and advocates Brexit Delay to find a deal

Another Johnson self preservation option - but would his party be ready to stomach delay? Pretty unlikely

5️⃣
The Darroch fiasco, or some other major scandal prevents Boris Johnson becoming PM, even though he wins the Tory leadership ballot

Or was Johnson himself even the leaker? But is there any scandal large enough to down Johnson? Doubtful

6️⃣
The Queen puts the criterion on Boris Johnson becoming PM that he has to submit himself to a confidence motion

The PM is supposed to command a majority in the Commons. Could the monarch ask Johnson to test it? It would be an innovative solution!

7️⃣
The Queen appoints a caretaker Prime Minister as successor to Theresa May

Rather than May continuing as a caretaker, could some interim solution - Benn, Lidington? - be sought by the Queen? It'd be a very European political style solution!

8️⃣
Sinn Féin take their seats in the House of Commons

That's down Johnson as PM in an instant. And help stop a hard border in Ireland. But the Sinn Féin Leader (and indeed anyone who knows Irish politics) thinks this isn't going to happen

9️⃣
The Metropolitan Police arrest Aaron Banks or other Leave campaign staff

This has been dragging for months, even years - will any criminal charges be brought? And when? But even then politicians will still bleat "Will of the People!" and nothing will happen

🔟
An escalation of tensions with Iran distracts everyone from Brexit

Johnson has form inflaming relations with Iran. So could a foreign policy fiasco, or conflict, distract everyone from Brexit?

The blog post and thread were helped enormously by input from @somersetchris @mwarne @pwb @tonykilner @usherwood @_lisacostello

/ends