,
13 tweets,
5 min read
Read on Twitter
A #thread on Johnson's yesterday's proposal. Disclaimer- I am in bed with a flu so if something does not sound 100% convincing or if you see any typos you will know why.
1. UK's gov. narrative has significantly changed. Whereas May was committed to objectives of the backstop - particularly all-island economy and no hardening of a border Johnson is recognising that there will be customs checks even though he wants to do them away from the border.
2. His proposals are effectively creating 2 borders: one on the Island of Ireland &another between NI and the rest of UK. That is leaving NI business in a worse position than it would have been under initial version of the backstop. For all the details follow @SamuelMarcLowe
@SamuelMarcLowe 3. You may ask why DUP is not protesting out loud against the regulatory border between NI and the rest of UK. Well, there are several reasons.
@SamuelMarcLowe 4. First, DUP is not polling that well & it might think that a more compromising stance could help correct that. Second, Johnson is buying its support with the requirement that the idea of NI remaining part of EU’s regulatory area would be subject to NI institutions' consent.
@SamuelMarcLowe 5. As you might have noticed the EU is not rejecting UK’s proposal outright. There are elements in this proposal that the EU could probably live with but there are also some such as ideas related to customs checks and consent that are -in my view- almost impossible to swallow.
@SamuelMarcLowe 6. All will eventually boil down to two issues: Is Boris willing to move and let his proposals evolve towards the NI backstop only? And, can he push such a deal through parliament?
@SamuelMarcLowe 7. I know that No 10 is briefing that this proposal constitutes “a broad landing zone” and so, there could be some movements.
@SamuelMarcLowe 8. But it seems to me that the moment Johnson realises the landing zone is far away from what he initially proposed &that such a deal would have a bumpy ride in the Commons he might consider walking away from the negotiating table.
@SamuelMarcLowe 9. Then the Q is whether Benn Act can make Johnson ask for extension. I might be wrong but I don't think he will be willing to ignore or bypass the legislation. He will know that the moment he does it someone will launch legal case against him& the courts will stop him.
@SamuelMarcLowe 10. I think he would prefer to resign 'in protest against Parliament trying to undermine the will of the people'. Let's not forget that Johnson is already in full campaigning mode.
@SamuelMarcLowe 11.I am no UK constitutional expert but it seems to me there is a chance that in such circumstances a caretaker gov could emerge &it would have only one mission- asking the EU for extension and calling elections.But better ask @davidallengreen.There is no better person to talk to
@SamuelMarcLowe @davidallengreen 12. Would the EU-27 agree to extend the article 50 talks? In almost all likelihood yes- not because they believe that elections would solve everything - but because the EU will not want to be blamed for pushing the UK off the cliff-edge. END
