Thread by @rbrharrison

A thread on where we are on Brexit, focusing on the choice facing the EU, and why serious engagement with these UK proposals is sensible.

Bottom line: if these proposals die there is a small chance of a better outcome for the EU (a Corbyn deal that keeps UK in customs union) but much bigger chance of No Deal (disastrous for Ireland) or the UK voting to Remain (disastrous for all long term).

Why? There are 4 potential final outcomes:

1) A deal based on further iterations of latest UK proposals, either now or after a Conservative election victory. Forces some difficult concessions on customs for the EU.

2) No Deal - lots of tough talk from the EU on this but without doubt a disaster for Ireland.

3) A second referendum that leads to a Remain vote. The EU and the UK stay in an increasingly unhappy and disruptive marriage.

4) A softer deal where the UK stays in a customs union, probably negotiated by a Corbyn government either before a referendum or after another Leave vote.

Clearly the EU would prefer (4) but this requires both a Corbyn led government and a Leave vote in another referendum. Combined probability must be much less than 25%.

(2) and (3) are both very bad outcomes for the EU. Irish politics may mean No Deal is easier on day one than making concessions, but day two onwards is a disaster.

So if the EU are not willing to make any concessions on customs they are effectively rejecting (1) and hoping for (4) but with a much bigger chance of (2) or (3).

That seems like a very unwise gamble to take.

Engaging now requires foresight and leadership but is clearly the most sensible course of action.

👇

https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1180413351186317312?s=19