Good morning 🌧️ - weather isn't great & have to say that I've succumbed to the bugs😱 (don't worry, just seasonal flu). At 8am, we got Singapore GDP & 🤞🏻it dodges a technical recession (data still weak). MAS easing on the cards.
China trade is today - markets expect contraction
China trade is today - markets expect contraction
We are also due to get China monetary data at some pt this wk (today or tom).
@Trinhnomics will be on @CNBCi to speak about Singapore & ASEAN growth & how they're faring w/ trade-war.
Our view is short-term challenge for ASEAN but trade-war can be an opportunity medium term👈🏻
@Trinhnomics will be on @CNBCi to speak about Singapore & ASEAN growth & how they're faring w/ trade-war.
Our view is short-term challenge for ASEAN but trade-war can be an opportunity medium term👈🏻
@CNBCi Singapore central bank (MAS) eases policy & reducing the slop of the currency band, GDP rose less than expected of 0.6% QoQ SAAR.
To translate this to layman term, MAS targets the SNEER, which is a weighted index FX & to keep its FX more competitive to help w/ languishing trade
To translate this to layman term, MAS targets the SNEER, which is a weighted index FX & to keep its FX more competitive to help w/ languishing trade
@CNBCi Here is how u think about it: Singapore has a massive current account surplus (double digits as a share of GDP) & so the SGD naturally has an appreciating pressure. But the MAS targets the SNEER (FX & doesn't disclose weights, slope etc). It releases the SNEER weekly.
So what?
So what?
@CNBCi If the central bank says it reduces the slope of the currency band (white line) but keeps center & width steady, then it is signalling to the market that it is not happy w/ the SGD naturally appreciating & will keep it competitive.
Meaning, SGD doesn't outperform the region...
Meaning, SGD doesn't outperform the region...
@CNBCi 1 way to think about it is to consider Singapore's large trade partner (China). What has happened to the SGD/CNY cross? Well, SGD appreciated! So what? The MAS is just saying that it is not happy about this & will make sure it doesn't get out of control to erode competitiveness
@CNBCi China trade data in CNY came out & it is worse than expected: imports fell -6.2%YoY vs -2.3% expected (USD'll be worse). Exports contracted -0.7%YoY in CNY vs 1.5% expected. We'll get USD soon. China imports contraction is bad news for the region & the globe (2nd largest importer
@CNBCi Ouch. In USD terms, import contraction accelerated to -8.5% YoY & exports contracted -3.2% 👈🏻👈🏻👈🏻
Told you, watch the imports. Not good for regional traders like Korea & Singapore, which eased this morning as growth sags. On in 25 mins on CNBC to speak about this 🤗
Told you, watch the imports. Not good for regional traders like Korea & Singapore, which eased this morning as growth sags. On in 25 mins on CNBC to speak about this 🤗
