Thread by @TomMcTague

While the default position of many (most?) is to mock or disdain the DUP, it’s worth trying to understand their perspective, the challenges they now face—and why any grown up should hope that whatever is agreed no side in Northern Ireland feels humiliated. Thread 1/15

Many will immediately respond: “Serves them right for backing Brexit.” The DUP view (not unreasonable) is the Good Friday Agreement *affirmed* UK sovereignty in NI—and NI citizens’ equality as UK citizens. They resent being told they cannot be pro Brexit like anyone else 2/15

“Well, they should’ve backed the May deal then.” Maybe, but don’t pretend there weren’t *major* problems with backstop. It created an indefinite new system for NI with no way to exit without Dublin’s consent. For the DUP, it removed their ability to control their own future 3/15

“They backed the wrong man: May was a unionist, Johnson’s a charlatan who will turn them over.”

The thing to understand about Ulster unionists: they don’t trust *any* English man or woman (hint: 1972, 1985 etc).

And they don’t feel betrayed yet 4/15

Johnson might be a charlatan who does not care about the union, I don’t know and make no judgement. But he’s appointed advisers who understand and empathise with unionism and appears closer to a Brexit deal acceptable to the DUP, Dublin, Brussels and London than May ever got 5/15

So what does the DUP do now? Depends on the detail, of course. But here are things it is weighing up:
a) Does unionism retain some agency over its own future?
b) The upcoming general election and the marginal seats it is defending
c) What are the risks of saying no? 6/15

Point a) — agency.

Under May’s deal, Northern Ireland was locked tightly into EU law—GB less so. The risk was that London would inevitable loosen its relationship, but Northern Ireland never could.
—Is *this* risk mitigated in the Johnson deal? 7/15

Continuing with a)...

Key point: an administrative customs border in Irish Sea might be practically harder than the May offer, but legality matters. Can Johnson work up a permanent solution that keeps NI in UK zone, with acceptable administrative solutions down Irish Sea? 8/15

Continuing again with a)...

Consent—as I have been banging on about for a while—remains important. Dublin has said it cannot accept a unionist veto. Unionism doesn’t want a nationalist veto.

But what about a simple majority in Stormont? Neither side has a majority any more 9/15

Onto point b) — the election.

The DUP is being asked to take an electoral risk *just before an election.* What would Sir Humphrey say?

However, it is not that simple. Middle unionism wants a deal—the DUP can’t afford to fall too far out of step... 10/15

Coninuing with point b)...

One senior unionist to me last night: “The only prism to judge DUP decisions through in the next few days is what it means for general election in key marginal seats.”

And if you thought Brexit was complicated, make a judgement on that... 11/15

And point c) — the risk of saying no.

Will their voters punish them if there’s an extension and an election? Unclear. I’m not best placed to judge.

But what of unionism’s relationship with (conservative) Britain—its ultimate supporter/protector? What does a “no” do? 12/15

Continuing with point c)...

Unionism has felt abandoned before. In 1972 and 1985. It is prepared to be abandoned again, but it’s not a comfortable place. Is it even sustainable? So the question is also *when* to compromise, to say you’ve got the most you can get? 13/15

The answers are not easy for unionists. Some would like Brexit cancelled altogether. Others would take no deal. But they are not insubstantial questions. Dismissing them as such is a form of simplistic populism that most of those critical of the DUP claim to abhor 14/15

Final point: an equitable deal is in everyone’s interest. Dublin needs (and wants) to repair its relationship with unionism. London needs (and wants?) to repair its relationship with nationalism. Stability in NI requires both to happen. A deal is a key building block 15/ends