As someone involved in the process put it to me: if the EU can agree a much more complicated UK-wide customs union for the WA, they can agree a far simpler zero-tariff arrangement 1/6
Remember: We heard the exact same complaint before the all-UK customs union was agreed—that it was too complicated and there was not enough time. Then it happened 2/6
Why might the EU be reluctant to agree a zero-tariff arrangement now? It has little to do with the border. It’s about leverage: the EU would be giving away something the UK wants without getting anything (on the future relationship) in return 3/6
The EU has (successfully) maximised its leverage at every stage:
a) no negotiation without notification;
b) divorce first, then future relationship (apart from backstop)
—It will only weaken this leverage VERY reluctantly, even if it risks no-deal (another piece of leverage) 4/6
a) no negotiation without notification;
b) divorce first, then future relationship (apart from backstop)
—It will only weaken this leverage VERY reluctantly, even if it risks no-deal (another piece of leverage) 4/6
Thought experiment: where would we be today if the divorce and future relationship had not been quarantined from each other? No backstop for one (though something else in the draft UK-EU FTA perhaps). Anti no-dealers in May govt believe EU sequencing biggest hurdle of all 5/6
Final counter intuitive thought. David Davis (remember him) used to say two things which received much mockery:
1) UK should fight sequencing
2) It will all be decided at last minute
—Was he wrong? 6/6
1) UK should fight sequencing
2) It will all be decided at last minute
—Was he wrong? 6/6
