1. Hopefully, this will end any debate about whether the 2019 growing season ended sometime in the last week, for all but parts of the far eastern and SE parts of the Corn Belt. Good grief. Parts of ND off the scale. #earlywinter
2. I find the grey parts of the scale especially interesting. This is at least 1 hour of temps below freezing. Remember it only takes a couple of hours below freezing to kill a corn or soybean plant.
3. So, we should take it as a fact that something like 80% of the Corn Belt had a killing freeze in the last week. Now the big question is what damage did this do to yield potential? A freeze does little if any damage if crops are mature.
4. So the real guessing is the number of acres of immature corn and soybeans and stage of grain fill when the freezing temps hit. Close to maturity then probably minimal damage, maybe 2-3%. Not much. But the damage rises very rapidly the less mature the crop.
5. This is why I found the grey parts of the scale so interesting. This is getting into the eastern areas of the Corn Belt where much of the crops were planted in June. Had to at least really singe those crops where it froze.
6. So, after looking at @snodgrss map, I think my estimate of freeze damage to US corn production of around 250 million bushels may end up being on the conservative side. Interested in what others think.
