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, 3 tweets, 1 min read
So remember how Jamie Dimon said yesterday that regulations were keeping JPMorgan from stepping in to stop last month's repo meltdown...?

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
Well, now it seems like maybe smaller banks read those comments and are also getting a bit more stingy with their cash...
And that's how you get headlines like:

*NY FED O/N REPO OP FULLY SUBSCRIBED, $75B INJECTED INTO SYSTEM

*EFFECTIVE FED FUNDS RATE FOR TUESDAY 1.90%; PRIOR SETTING 1.82%

It's mid-month! The Fed is doing repo operations and buying T-bills! This isn't supposed to be happening.
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More from @BChappatta see all

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Brian Chappatta
@BChappatta
MILLENNIALS

You might think “avocado toast” or “participation trophies.” But they’re about to become the biggest adult cohort in America, and Wall Street wants to know if they can lead the U.S. economy (and stock market) to greater heights.

Thread!

bloomberg.com/graphics/2019-…
I worked with the masterful @hecharts to make graphics that provide a better sense of where millennials are at right now.

Using Fed data and other statistics, we can see how young Americans (under 35) now compare to those of the past. And how they compare to older generations.
@hecharts Some good news: Millennials are starting to make more money.

The unemployment rate has declined and wage growth has somewhat picked up in recent years. So median income is finally bouncing back after a big drop in the wake of the Great Recession.
Read 16 tweets
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Brian Chappatta
@BChappatta
Still confused about why the repo market is freaking out, and whether you should care?

It’s about BUDGET DEFICITS.

Thread!

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
Budget deficits, while nothing new, obviously add up over time.

While the U.S. deficit soared after the crisis, it declined each year from 2011 through 2015. It widened again under President Donald Trump.

That’s TRIPLED the amount of U.S. Treasuries out there.
Running deficits is one thing when the Fed’s engaging in QE. But starting in late 2017, the central bank began trimming its balance sheet.

By the time the Fed ended its runoff in July, it had shed about $400 BILLION from its Treasury holdings.
Read 10 tweets
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Brian Chappatta
@BChappatta
Donald Trump, the self-proclaimed “King of Debt,” had some advice for the Fed today.

Most of it doesn’t hold up to the slightest scrutiny.

THREAD

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
Zero or negative interest rates would probably do more harm than good right now.

They would likely cause an immediate problem for banks. And it’s a very open question whether Americans would take negative yields sitting down. They’ve never had to before.
The U.S. doesn’t “refinance” its debt in any meaningful way. The federal government isn’t like a company that issues bonds that can be bought back if borrowing costs fall. For the most part, higher-coupon bonds just eventually roll off the books.
Read 10 tweets

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Karol Cummins
@karolcummins
🍑Meltdown🍑

Pelosi owns Trump & signals Article 5 re Trump/Putin.

Dbl Jeopardy loophole closed

Trump ignored Syria exit

Syria = BD gift to Putin

Trump’s Syria Fiasco Is Part of Putin’s To-Do List

Giuliani under counterintel inv’n, like Ivanka & likely most of TeamTrump.
🍑Meltdown2🍑

Syria stategy: avoid a violent rush to fill a power vacuum opened by a sudden U.S. exit.

Trump Abandoned almost 5 years of training & dev’t of an allied force, & gift-wrapping it for the RUs & Assad has been devastating to our morale," said the NSC official.
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Trump assigned Barr & Mnuchin to appease Erdogan’s repeated pleas to avoid charges against Halkbank

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Read 89 tweets
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Noah Smith 🐇
@Noahpinion
Today's @bopinion post is about taxing the very wealthiest Americans.

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
By now you've all seen that infographic showing how top tax rates have come down since the 50s:

Here's how the situation stands as of 2018.
Read 19 tweets
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Marc Goldwein
@MarcGoldwein
People have asked what I think about #SocialSecurity2100, the most popular bill in Congress to save #SocialSecurity.

Short THREAD 1/

crfb.org/blogs/ways-and…
First, let me STRONGLY commend @RepJohnLarson for putting forward this bill and holding hearings on it. @JohnLarsonCT understands Social Security is only 16 years from insolvency, and he is fight to save it!

2/
crfb.org/blogs/how-old-…
So what's in the bill? @BudgetHawks has a great summary below. The short version - payroll taxes go up 20 percent (2..4 point) on everyone and 14.8 points on the rich. The $$ is used to restore solvency and to expand benefits for everyone (especially at low incomes) 3/
Read 16 tweets
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Noah Smith 🐇
@Noahpinion
Here's what I would do to reduce the cost of college while maintaining funding levels for research:
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
In addition to lowering costs, we need to do a lot to improve access.

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
Right now, it looks like demand for college might be falling. Making college cheaper, and encouraging more people to apply, might reverse that trend.

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
Read 3 tweets
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Noah Smith 🐇
@Noahpinion
Today's @bopinion post is about Trump's trade war with China.

He appears to be losing.

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
It does look like Trump's tariffs hit Chinese business confidence a bit, and contributed to a mild slowdown in 2018.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
And it did spur some companies to think about diversifying their supply chains out of China.

asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Trade-…
Read 14 tweets

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