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, 10 tweets, 2 min read
Running the numbers again for a Deal in the Commons
We *now* think the DUP is against. And that means Hoey will also be against.

But beyond that?

That's where it gets murky
How do the independents split?

Here's the list of them here:
parliament.uk/mps-lords-and-…
My calculation has these 11:
Grieve
Greening
Bebb
Lewis
O’Mara
Williamson
Woodcock
Hill
Ellman
Shuker
Hepburn
AGAINST a Deal, and all others in favour
But there are 10 more where it's harder to know - what will:
Burt
Hammond, P
Harrington
Hermon
Sandbach
Gauke
Clark
Clarke
Field
Rudd
do?

Not vote, or vote against?
If just the 11 independents vote against, all other independents in favour, Johnson needs 8️⃣ Labour MPs to get a majority (Mann, plus 7 Kinnock/Flintites)
If the 11 independents vote against, and the 10 more I list above do not vote, Johnson needs 1️⃣3️⃣ Labour MPs to get a majority (Mann, plus 12 Kinnock/Flintites)
If the 11 independents vote against, and the 10 more I list above also vote against, Johnson needs 2️⃣1️⃣ Labour MPs to get a majority (Mann, plus 20 Kinnock/Flintites)
Also note that this thread assumes EVERY SINGLE TORY votes for the Deal (which, given Owen Paterson's comments seems rather unlikely)
How the independents in the Commons split is going to be central here - that's the group to keep an eye on!

.ods file of my workings for this thread here:
jonworth.eu/downloads/majo…

/ends
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
OK.

This changes the whole arithmetic and procedure for tomorrow, if Speaker allows it to be voted on.

With Labour backing this will likely pass. So Johnson MUST ask for an extension. MPs will not be bounced into a decision.
I have also hence deleted my vote prediction tweets for tomorrow, because it is now highly likely that all of this will not actually come to a vote.

As Boles, Letwin and Hammond, P are backing the Amendment, it's odds on to pass.
Also note to #EUCO, @eucopresident, Macron, Merkel et al - that extension request is going to be coming!
Read 3 tweets
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
I’m anti Brexit. I think this endeavour is foolish.

But doing it this way is extremely foolish. Whatever your view of Brexit.
First: there will be no impact assessment on the costs of this Deal available to MPs tomorrow

How can MPs make a judgment without that?
Second: the text of this Deal came out yesterday. Do MPs understand it? If they don’t, does anyone fully understand it yet?

- 63 pages Revised Protocol to the Withdrawal Agreement

- 26 pages Revised Political Declaration

- 3 pages Unilateral Declaration of Consent
Read 5 tweets
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
Myth building about Jeremy Corbyn

A thread
On Saturday 19 October - starting at 0930 - there is an extra session about the Brexit Deal in the House of Commons

On the same day at 1830 Jeremy Corbyn is due in Liverpool at a rally events.labour.org.uk/event/283916
This rally was announced when the idea of a Saturday session had been floated, but not confirmed

We have no evidence whatsoever to indicate that Corbyn will NOT be in the Commons
Read 19 tweets

Related threads

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Nick Gutteridge
@nick_gutteridge
1/ EU officials and diplomats were dismayed by last night's furore in Parliament, and events in general over the past few weeks. They have left them questioning how they will deal for years - even decades - to come with a Britain that looks increasingly divided and dysfunctional.
2/ The 'acrimony' in Parliament last night and the hostile line taken by PM Johnson has shocked some. They are worried by how much he alienated even moderate MPs on all sides of the House, without whom he can't get a majority for a deal.
3/ This follows the prorogation debacle and comments No 10 and ministers made about judges, which were clocked with concern here. A large part of the UK's plan involves the EU trusting its 'world class' institutions. 'But now we're no longer sure the institutions are holding.'
Read 10 tweets
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=Orange=
@LynwoodTalks
'The only person on the national stage who seems to consistently understand that is Pres. Donald Trump. But he can’t do it alone. He needs you. And that means he needs you to stop being a Never Trumper and start being a Republican. Again.'

@HeartlandDiary
realclearpolitics.com/articles/2019/…
Read the entire article. Here's an excerpt:

"If you’ve been paying attention since Trump was elected on Nov. 8, 2016, you surely know by now that you were dead wrong about him.

This is a president for the times we live in.
Try to imagine the founding of our nation without George Washington to steady it.

Try to picture the outcome of the secession of the Southern states without Abraham Lincoln there to stand against it.

Think of the Apollo moon shot without John Kennedy to launch it.
Read 5 tweets
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Liveware Problem
@NoraReed
i shouldn't talk about this again because i'm still brain fried but i think that the defense against critics of hopepunk is to define "hopepunk" so broadly it is effectively meaningless, especially if you're trying to sell it as a *genre*
like y'all know that a genre is gonna span good and bad stuff, right. it's not a quality descriptor. you can't just put a bunch of stuff that you see as having a similar tone and also think is good in a bucket and say "this is a genre" and expect people to be like "great"
what it seems to be from watching several people talk about it is that they point at things with a specific tone that they say are good and say "that is hopepunk" and then they get really defensive when you say that's not really something anyone other than them can use
Read 12 tweets
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Dennis Demori
@DennisDemori
"Are you worried that computers will replace Copywriters?"

WUT?

Who fucking cares?

Get so rich and build so many income streams that you won't even have to work in 5 years

Pretend you won't be able to work 5 years from now

There's your urgency
The only reason people ask this question is because they're worried about making money 10, 20, 30 year from now

Do you really want to be in a position where you NEED to work in 30 years?

I sure as hell don't

After December 31st, 2022 I'll be working 2 hours a day max, Tue-Thu
This is exactly how I would approach my business if I was another freelancer

“How can I make the absolute maximum money over the next 5 years so I never have to work again?”

So that work is optional rather than necessary

Think big picture instead of how to find next client
Read 4 tweets
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Brexitshambles
@brexit_sham
#Tory conference on the horizon & the 'no deal' #Brexit vultures circle the carcass. All the usual suspects incl' Littlewood, Singham and @SteveBakerHW for the IEA. @isaby, @Jacob_Rees_Mogg, @DanielJHannan, @patel4witham, @andreajenkyns for @matthew_elliott's BrexitCentral......
Thick as thieves...... Hannan and Singham again, Bromund of 'Anglo-American Relations,' Steifel of the Cato Institute, for the Heritage Foundation. The IEA again, this time with Arlene Foster and Nigel Dodds of the #DUP.
Flies on a turd..... Elliott's infamous 'Tax Payers' Alliance,' with Priti Patel again, and, of course @LowTaxChloe. The Bruges Group, with Patel (again), Jenkyns (again) and @OwenPaterson.....
Read 4 tweets
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Michael D. Hill
@GeePawHill
i've said in a bunch of different ways how skeptical i am of method.
in software-for-money, applying method -- structure, process, technique, algorithm, recipe, formula -- seems to me to be so rarely successful across contexts as to be, idunno, the great collapsed souffle of the entire geek trade.
by the time our abstraction-level has gotten high enough to incorporate the successes we've seen, it is also so high as to incorporate many or most of the failures we've seen.
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