1/ EU officials and diplomats were dismayed by last night's furore in Parliament, and events in general over the past few weeks. They have left them questioning how they will deal for years - even decades - to come with a Britain that looks increasingly divided and dysfunctional.
2/ The 'acrimony' in Parliament last night and the hostile line taken by PM Johnson has shocked some. They are worried by how much he alienated even moderate MPs on all sides of the House, without whom he can't get a majority for a deal.
3/ This follows the prorogation debacle and comments No 10 and ministers made about judges, which were clocked with concern here. A large part of the UK's plan involves the EU trusting its 'world class' institutions. 'But now we're no longer sure the institutions are holding.'
4/ Combined with the UK's alternative backstop plan, which the EU sees as unworkable and unserious, it's a bleak outlook. 'We're changing our focus from getting a deal to how to manage the potential fallout of enduring instability in the UK. We’re waking up to that reality now.'
5/ The EU side can take no comfort in looking to the Opposition as it equally unimpressed with Jeremy Corbyn's approach to Brexit. They have no desire to negotiate a new deal with Labour that it may very well then disown. And they think it's 'nowhere near' winning an election.
6/ 'The combined effect of the Labour conference, the court verdict and last night's session has done nothing to stem our concern. How are we ever going to come to a deal with this arithmetic?' They now think it's highly likely PM Johnson will walk out of the Oct 17 summit.
7/ But the Benn Act provides scant comfort either. Most here don't believe PM Johnson will break the law, and say they'll grant an extension if the UK asks. The EU will always do everything it can to avoid any blame for No Deal. Officials laugh off the idea any leader would veto.
8/ But they believe another delay will only increase the chances of No Deal down the line. Their calculation is the UK is now so riven with division that the next General Election will result in a hung parliament which will have a majority for nothing, including a further delay.
9/ And this is where PM Johnson maybe has a glimmer. The EU is tired of Brexit and wants to move on. 'If indeed there’s a small window to make a deal we should absolutely seize it, because the prospect of the UK in an extension is simply carrying over the abyss for three months.'
10/ So the outlook from Brussels' perspective this morning is pretty grim. A huge amount of the lingering hope rests on the idea PM Johnson is playing tough before the Tory conference so he can pull a rabbit out of the hat after it. But not even the optimists are that convinced.
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh.

Enjoying this thread?

Keep Current with Nick Gutteridge

Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!